SciRisk 100 · Automotive · Rank 1 of 100
Toyota Motor
7203.T · Japan · Automotive SC5 Very High
What does this ESCRC number mean?
An ESCRC of $861.3m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for Toyota Motor under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $1.19bn; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $170.3m.
Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.
Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile
Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.
By tier
Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.
By supplier geography
Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.
By supplier industry
Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.
| Supplier | Tier | Country | ExposureUSD m | Standalone VaRUSD m | Expected lossUSD m | Tail intensityrevenue-days | RoESCRCx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AisinDrivetrain parts | T1 | Japan | 36000 | 824.8 | 85.7 | 7.0 | 8.2 |
| DensoElectronics/HVAC | T1 | Japan | 45000 | 481.2 | 49.7 | 3.3 | 17.7 |
| Sumitomo ElecWiring harnesses | T1 | Japan | 10000 | 106.9 | 11.3 | 3.3 | 17.7 |
| Panasonic EnergyEV batteries | T1 | Japan | 8000 | 85.5 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 17.7 |
| BridgestoneTyres | T1 | Japan | 6000 | 64.2 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 17.7 |
| JTEKTSteering systems/driveline components | T1 | Japan | 1500 | 32.6 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 8.7 |
| BoschFuel injection | T2 | Germany | 7000 | 25.3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 31.6 |
| Magna IntlBody stampings | T2 | Canada | 6000 | 21.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 31.6 |
| Nippon SteelSheet steel | T3 | Japan | 3000 | 5.8 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 29.7 |
| Sumitomo Metal MiningNickel/cobalt cathode materials | T2 | Japan | 150 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 31.5 |
| AlbemarleLithium hydroxide | T3 | USA | 100 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 38.1 |
| GlencoreCobalt/nickel | T3 | Switzerland | 100 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 38.1 |
The calculator ships a researched network for Toyota Motor
This index entry prices every supplier by its share of cost — the ic pro-rata rule, applied uniformly to all 100 companies. The calculator's preset for this company ("Toyota") uses the criticality parameters instead: κ, the share of output that halts while a supplier is down, and β, the share of that never recovered. Same engine, same seed, same settings:
- SciRisk 100 entry (ic, pro-rata)
- $861.3m · 0.314% of revenue
- Calculator preset (s severity)
- $3.16bn · 1.154% of revenue
- Ratio
- 3.67x
The ratio reflects the different severity parameters, not research quality: s prices a concentrated bottleneck above its share of cost, which the ic rule cannot. Neither figure is used to adjust the other. It is why index figures are labelled preliminary.
Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2
Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for Toyota Motor are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.
Sector peers
Nearest-ranked companies in Automotive. Toyota Motor is highlighted.
| Rank | Company | Ticker | Country | Sector | RevenueUSD bn | ESCRCUSD m | ESCRC / Revenue% | Risk Grade | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toyota Motor | 7203.T | Japan | Automotive | 274.0 | 861.3 | 0.314 | SC5 Very High | ▲ +55.5% |
| 8 | Volkswagen Group | VOW3.DE | Germany | Automotive | 348.0 | 275.2 | 0.079 | SC3 Moderate | ▲ +33.0% |
| 12 | Hyundai Motor | 005380.KS | South Korea | Automotive | 125.0 | 232.4 | 0.186 | SC4 High | ▲ +107.4% |
| 14 | Honda Motor | 7267.T | Japan | Automotive | 137.0 | 190.0 | 0.139 | SC4 High | ▲ +20.4% |
| 18 | Mercedes-Benz Group | MBG.DE | Germany | Automotive | 160.0 | 136.9 | 0.086 | SC3 Moderate | ▲ +36.3% |
| 21 | BMW Group | BMW.DE | Germany | Automotive | 155.0 | 123.8 | 0.080 | SC3 Moderate | ▲ +28.9% |
See this for your own supply chain
You are looking at Toyota Motor's supply-chain risk capital: $861.3m against $274.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by Aisin and Japan. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-22 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta
- Simulation
- 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
- Seed
- 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
- Input basis
- Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
- Input fingerprint
- 9e8f7ca203a9
- Financials
- Production calculator preset focal-firm figures.
- Network
- Production calculator preset network (Toyota) — supplier names, tiers, geographies, products and purchase volumes as shipped.
- Parameters
- lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-6 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.
Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.