SciRisk
Insights
How the ESCRC model behaves, argued from worked examples rather than from first principles. Every figure comes from the production engine, and every assumption we know about is stated where it bites.
The chokepoint illusion: what a Strait of Hormuz stress test actually tells you
A Strait of Hormuz closure scenario, run unmodified across all 100 SciRisk 100 networks, ranks Japanese manufacturers and chip supply chains highest — and Chevron and ExxonMobil near the bottom. Why the ranking is right, why the size of it isn't, and what the model structurally cannot see.
The tier-2 question: why model a supplier you don't buy from?
The intuition says a tier-2 supplier's risk is already inside your tier-1 number, so modelling it again is double counting. A two-supplier worked example, checked against an independent day-by-day simulation, says otherwise, and shows which input decides the answer.
Reading about the model is not the same as running it
Every insight here is a worked example on the production ESCRC engine. The same engine sits behind the calculator, and there it takes your suppliers, your buffer days and your criticality rather than ours.