SciRisk Calculate your ESCRC
As of 2026-06-30| Model v5.4.2| Priors 2026.09-5| Calculated 2026-09-21| 100,000 paths · 95% · 365d| BETA Methodology

SciRisk 100 · Automotive · Rank 14 of 100

Honda Motor

7267.T · Japan · Automotive   SC4 High

Economic Supply Chain Risk Capital
$190.0m
95% one-year Value-at-Risk · interval $188.0m to $192.4m (2.3% wide)
Risk Capital Intensity
0.139%
of $137.0bn revenue · rank #21 of 100
Global rank
#14
of 100 by ESCRC
Sector rank
#4
of 10 in Automotive
Expected Shortfall
$270.2m
Mean loss beyond ESCRC
Expected annual loss
$48.0m
Ordinary year
Revenue / COGS
137.0 / 108.0
USD bn · gross margin 21%
Suppliers modelled
15
2 correlated geographies

What does this ESCRC number mean?

An ESCRC of $190.0m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for Honda Motor under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $270.2m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $48.0m.

Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.

Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile

Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.

By tier

Tier 1
90%
Tier 2
9%
Tier 3
1%

Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.

By supplier geography

Japan
98%
Germany
1%
Switzerland
0%

Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.

By supplier industry

automotive
91%
general mfg
5%
chemicals materials
3%
raw materials mining
0%

Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.

Largest supplier share
28%
Aisin
Top-3 concentration
63%
of summed standalone VaR
Tier-1 share of risk
90%
Direct suppliers
Diversification benefit
59.0%
vs. sum of standalone VaR
SupplierTierCountry ExposureUSD m Standalone VaRUSD m Expected lossUSD m Tail intensityrevenue-days RoESCRCx
AisinDrivetrain parts T1 Japan 5400 131.7 13.7 7.0 10.8
DensoElectronics/HVAC T1 Japan 9720 110.7 11.4 3.3 23.3
Sumitomo ElectricWiring harnesses T1 Japan 4320 49.2 5.1 3.3 23.3
Panasonic EnergyEV batteries T1 Japan 3780 43.0 4.4 3.3 23.3
YazakiWiring harnesses T1 Japan 3240 36.9 3.8 3.3 23.3
BridgestoneTyres T1 Japan 2160 24.6 2.5 3.3 23.3
RenesasAutomotive microcontrollers T2 Japan 2700 18.4 1.9 3.3 23.3
Nippon SteelSheet steel T2 Japan 3780 15.4 1.6 2.0 39.0
Hitachi AstemoBrake, steering, suspension and powertrain components T1 Japan 2160 14.7 1.7 2.0 39.0
Stanley ElectricAutomotive lighting (headlamps/LED) T2 Japan 972 6.6 0.7 3.3 23.3
Schaeffler AGEngine, transmission and chassis components (bearings, clutch) T1 Germany 1188 5.3 0.5 1.3 60.2
Exedy CorporationOEM clutch systems T2 Japan 756 3.1 0.4 2.0 39.0
GlencoreCobalt/nickel T3 Switzerland 1080 1.7 0.1 1.5 50.0
Mitsuba CorporationWiper motors, starter motors and power window motors T3 Japan 648 1.3 0.2 2.0 39.0
NTN CorporationCV joints and bearings T3 Japan 540 1.1 0.1 2.0 39.0

Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2

Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for Honda Motor are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.

Sector peers

Nearest-ranked companies in Automotive. Honda Motor is highlighted.

Open in Compare
RankCompanyTickerCountrySectorRevenueUSD bnESCRCUSD mESCRC / Revenue%Risk GradeChange
8 Volkswagen Group VOW3.DE Germany Automotive 348.0 275.2 0.079 SC3 Moderate ▲ +33.0%
12 Hyundai Motor 005380.KS South Korea Automotive 125.0 232.4 0.186 SC4 High ▲ +107.4%
14 Honda Motor 7267.T Japan Automotive 137.0 190.0 0.139 SC4 High ▲ +20.4%
18 Mercedes-Benz Group MBG.DE Germany Automotive 160.0 136.9 0.086 SC3 Moderate ▲ +36.3%
21 BMW Group BMW.DE Germany Automotive 155.0 123.8 0.080 SC3 Moderate ▲ +28.9%
24 General Motors GM USA Automotive 187.0 118.2 0.063 SC3 Moderate ▲ +19.0%

See this for your own supply chain

You are looking at Honda Motor's supply-chain risk capital: $190.0m against $137.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by Aisin and Japan. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.

ESCRC calculated using SciRisk ESCRC Model v5.4.2 · calibrated priors 2026.09-5
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta
Simulation
100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
Seed
20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
Input basis
Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
Input fingerprint
6719afbc8936
Input provenance for Honda Motor
Financials
Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
Network
Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
Parameters
lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.
SciRisk ESCRC is an analytical estimate generated using the SciRisk Economic Supply Chain Risk Capital methodology. It is not a credit rating, investment recommendation or statement of financial condition. Figures are model-implied and intended for screening and comparison, not as calibrated capital requirements.

Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.