SciRisk 100 · Automotive · Rank 14 of 100
Honda Motor
7267.T · Japan · Automotive SC4 High
What does this ESCRC number mean?
An ESCRC of $190.0m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for Honda Motor under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $270.2m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $48.0m.
Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.
Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile
Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.
By tier
Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.
By supplier geography
Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.
By supplier industry
Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.
| Supplier | Tier | Country | ExposureUSD m | Standalone VaRUSD m | Expected lossUSD m | Tail intensityrevenue-days | RoESCRCx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AisinDrivetrain parts | T1 | Japan | 5400 | 131.7 | 13.7 | 7.0 | 10.8 |
| DensoElectronics/HVAC | T1 | Japan | 9720 | 110.7 | 11.4 | 3.3 | 23.3 |
| Sumitomo ElectricWiring harnesses | T1 | Japan | 4320 | 49.2 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 23.3 |
| Panasonic EnergyEV batteries | T1 | Japan | 3780 | 43.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 23.3 |
| YazakiWiring harnesses | T1 | Japan | 3240 | 36.9 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 23.3 |
| BridgestoneTyres | T1 | Japan | 2160 | 24.6 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 23.3 |
| RenesasAutomotive microcontrollers | T2 | Japan | 2700 | 18.4 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 23.3 |
| Nippon SteelSheet steel | T2 | Japan | 3780 | 15.4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 39.0 |
| Hitachi AstemoBrake, steering, suspension and powertrain components | T1 | Japan | 2160 | 14.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 39.0 |
| Stanley ElectricAutomotive lighting (headlamps/LED) | T2 | Japan | 972 | 6.6 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 23.3 |
| Schaeffler AGEngine, transmission and chassis components (bearings, clutch) | T1 | Germany | 1188 | 5.3 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 60.2 |
| Exedy CorporationOEM clutch systems | T2 | Japan | 756 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 39.0 |
| GlencoreCobalt/nickel | T3 | Switzerland | 1080 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 50.0 |
| Mitsuba CorporationWiper motors, starter motors and power window motors | T3 | Japan | 648 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 39.0 |
| NTN CorporationCV joints and bearings | T3 | Japan | 540 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 39.0 |
Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2
Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for Honda Motor are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.
Sector peers
Nearest-ranked companies in Automotive. Honda Motor is highlighted.
| Rank | Company | Ticker | Country | Sector | RevenueUSD bn | ESCRCUSD m | ESCRC / Revenue% | Risk Grade | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Volkswagen Group | VOW3.DE | Germany | Automotive | 348.0 | 275.2 | 0.079 | SC3 Moderate | ▲ +33.0% |
| 12 | Hyundai Motor | 005380.KS | South Korea | Automotive | 125.0 | 232.4 | 0.186 | SC4 High | ▲ +107.4% |
| 14 | Honda Motor | 7267.T | Japan | Automotive | 137.0 | 190.0 | 0.139 | SC4 High | ▲ +20.4% |
| 18 | Mercedes-Benz Group | MBG.DE | Germany | Automotive | 160.0 | 136.9 | 0.086 | SC3 Moderate | ▲ +36.3% |
| 21 | BMW Group | BMW.DE | Germany | Automotive | 155.0 | 123.8 | 0.080 | SC3 Moderate | ▲ +28.9% |
| 24 | General Motors | GM | USA | Automotive | 187.0 | 118.2 | 0.063 | SC3 Moderate | ▲ +19.0% |
See this for your own supply chain
You are looking at Honda Motor's supply-chain risk capital: $190.0m against $137.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by Aisin and Japan. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta
- Simulation
- 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
- Seed
- 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
- Input basis
- Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
- Input fingerprint
- 6719afbc8936
- Financials
- Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
- Network
- Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
- Parameters
- lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.
Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.