SciRisk 100 · Automotive · Rank 24 of 100

General Motors

GM · USA · Automotive SC3 Moderate

Economic Supply Chain Risk Capital

$118.2m

95% one-year Value-at-Risk · interval $117.9m to $119.2m (1.1% wide)

Risk Capital Intensity

0.063%

of $187.0bn revenue · rank #57 of 100

Global rank

#24

of 100 by ESCRC

Sector rank

#7

of 10 in Automotive

Expected Shortfall

$153.3m

Mean loss beyond ESCRC

Expected annual loss

$32.5m

Ordinary year

Revenue / COGS

187.0 / 161.0

USD bn · gross margin 14%

Suppliers modelled

13

4 correlated geographies

What does this ESCRC number mean?

An ESCRC of $118.2m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for General Motors under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $153.3m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $32.5m.

Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.

Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile

Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.

By tier

Tier 1

96%

Tier 2

3%

Tier 3

1%

Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.

By supplier geography

USA

35%

Germany

21%

Canada

13%

South Korea

12%

Ireland

12%

Japan

6%

Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.

By supplier industry

automotive

84%

general mfg

13%

chemicals materials

3%

raw materials mining

1%

Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.

Largest supplier share

18%

BorgWarner

Top-3 concentration

46%

of summed standalone VaR

Tier-1 share of risk

96%

Direct suppliers

Diversification benefit

70.0%

vs. sum of standalone VaR

Supplier	Tier	Country	ExposureUSD m	Standalone VaRUSD m	Expected lossUSD m	Tail intensityrevenue-days	RoESCRCx
BorgWarnerDrivetrain parts	T1	USA	4830	71.9	5.6	4.7	10.8
BoschFuel injection/electronics	T1	Germany	9660	56.7	4.2	1.8	27.6
Magna InternationalBody stampings	T1	Canada	8855	52.0	4.0	1.8	27.6
VersigentWiring harnesses	T1	Ireland	8050	47.3	3.4	1.8	27.6
LG Energy SolutionEV batteries	T1	South Korea	8050	47.3	4.9	1.8	27.6
LearSeating/electrical	T1	USA	6440	37.8	2.9	1.8	27.6
Schaeffler AGValvetrain and engine/driveline components	T1	Germany	1932	26.6	2.4	4.3	11.7
GoodyearTyres	T1	USA	2898	17.0	1.3	1.8	27.6
NucorSheet steel	T2	USA	4830	12.2	0.9	1.3	38.5
Hitachi AstemoChassis, brake and powertrain components	T1	Japan	1932	12.1	1.4	2.0	25.9
JTEKTSteering columns and intermediate shafts	T1	Japan	1610	10.0	1.1	2.0	25.9
GlencoreCobalt/nickel	T3	Switzerland	1610	2.4	0.2	1.5	33.3
POSCO Future MCathode active material (CAM) for Ultium batteries	T3	South Korea	966	1.2	0.1	1.3	40.1

Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2

Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for General Motors are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.

Sector peers

Nearest-ranked companies in Automotive. General Motors is highlighted.

Open in Compare

Rank	Company	Ticker	Country	Sector	RevenueUSD bn	ESCRCUSD m	ESCRC / Revenue%	Risk Grade	Change
18	Mercedes-Benz Group	MBG.DE	Germany	Automotive	160.0	136.9	0.086	SC3 Moderate	▲ +36.3%
21	BMW Group	BMW.DE	Germany	Automotive	155.0	123.8	0.080	SC3 Moderate	▲ +28.9%
24	General Motors	GM	USA	Automotive	187.0	118.2	0.063	SC3 Moderate	▲ +19.0%
27	Stellantis	STLA	Netherlands	Automotive	200.0	110.0	0.055	SC2 Low	0.0%
29	Ford Motor	F	USA	Automotive	176.0	101.5	0.058	SC2 Low	▲ +18.1%
32	Tesla	TSLA	USA	Automotive	97.0	93.2	0.096	SC3 Moderate	▲ +0.2%

See this for your own supply chain

You are looking at General Motors's supply-chain risk capital: $118.2m against $187.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by BorgWarner and USA. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.

Calculate your ESCRC Load General Motors's network Compare with peers

ESCRC calculated using SciRisk ESCRC Model v5.4.2 · calibrated priors 2026.09-5
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta

Simulation: 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
Seed: 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
Input basis: Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
Input fingerprint: 2634007a9e46

Input provenance for General Motors

Financials: Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
Network: Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
Parameters: lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.

SciRisk ESCRC is an analytical estimate generated using the SciRisk Economic Supply Chain Risk Capital methodology. It is not a credit rating, investment recommendation or statement of financial condition. Figures are model-implied and intended for screening and comparison, not as calibrated capital requirements.

Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.