SciRisk 100 · Automotive · Rank 27 of 100
Stellantis
STLA · Netherlands · Automotive SC2 Low
What does this ESCRC number mean?
An ESCRC of $110.0m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for Stellantis under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $144.6m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $30.7m.
Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.
Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile
Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.
By tier
Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.
By supplier geography
Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.
By supplier industry
Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.
| Supplier | Tier | Country | ExposureUSD m | Standalone VaRUSD m | Expected lossUSD m | Tail intensityrevenue-days | RoESCRCx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoschFuel injection/electronics | T1 | Germany | 13200 | 80.9 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 34.5 |
| ForviaInterior/exhaust systems | T1 | France | 8250 | 50.6 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 34.5 |
| Magna InternationalBody stampings | T1 | Canada | 6600 | 40.5 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 34.5 |
| CATLEV batteries | T1 | China | 6600 | 40.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 34.5 |
| VersigentWiring harnesses | T1 | Ireland | 5775 | 35.4 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 34.5 |
| ValeoThermal/lighting systems | T1 | France | 7425 | 31.4 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 50.1 |
| MichelinTyres | T1 | France | 3300 | 20.2 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 34.5 |
| LG Energy SolutionEV battery cells (LFP), via NextStar Energy JV plant in Windsor, Ontario | T1 | South Korea | 3300 | 20.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 34.5 |
| STMicroelectronicsPower semiconductors | T2 | Switzerland | 4125 | 18.1 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 28.9 |
| ArcelorMittalSheet steel | T2 | Luxembourg | 5775 | 15.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 48.2 |
| Continental AGADAS and electro-hydraulic braking systems (ESC/brake-by-wire) | T1 | Germany | 2475 | 10.5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 50.1 |
| Schaeffler AGClutch systems, dual-mass flywheels and torque converters (LuK) | T1 | Germany | 1980 | 8.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 50.1 |
| NTN CorporationCV joints, driveshaft assemblies and wheel-bearing hub kits | T2 | Japan | 990 | 3.9 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 32.5 |
| BremboBrake systems and calipers | T2 | Italy | 1320 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 50.1 |
| GlencoreCobalt/nickel | T3 | Switzerland | 1650 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 41.7 |
Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2
Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for Stellantis are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.
Sector peers
Nearest-ranked companies in Automotive. Stellantis is highlighted.
| Rank | Company | Ticker | Country | Sector | RevenueUSD bn | ESCRCUSD m | ESCRC / Revenue% | Risk Grade | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Mercedes-Benz Group | MBG.DE | Germany | Automotive | 160.0 | 136.9 | 0.086 | SC3 Moderate | ▲ +36.3% |
| 21 | BMW Group | BMW.DE | Germany | Automotive | 155.0 | 123.8 | 0.080 | SC3 Moderate | ▲ +28.9% |
| 24 | General Motors | GM | USA | Automotive | 187.0 | 118.2 | 0.063 | SC3 Moderate | ▲ +19.0% |
| 27 | Stellantis | STLA | Netherlands | Automotive | 200.0 | 110.0 | 0.055 | SC2 Low | 0.0% |
| 29 | Ford Motor | F | USA | Automotive | 176.0 | 101.5 | 0.058 | SC2 Low | ▲ +18.1% |
| 32 | Tesla | TSLA | USA | Automotive | 97.0 | 93.2 | 0.096 | SC3 Moderate | ▲ +0.2% |
See this for your own supply chain
You are looking at Stellantis's supply-chain risk capital: $110.0m against $200.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by Bosch and France. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta
- Simulation
- 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
- Seed
- 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
- Input basis
- Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
- Input fingerprint
- eab17d86de93
- Financials
- Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
- Network
- Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
- Parameters
- lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.
Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.