SciRisk Calculate your ESCRC
As of 2026-06-30| Model v5.4.2| Priors 2026.09-5| Calculated 2026-09-21| 100,000 paths · 95% · 365d| BETA Methodology

SciRisk 100 · Technology Hardware · Rank 36 of 100

Lenovo

0992.HK · China · Technology Hardware   SC4 High

Economic Supply Chain Risk Capital
$76.4m
95% one-year Value-at-Risk · interval $75.7m to $77.1m (1.9% wide)
Risk Capital Intensity
0.134%
of $57.0bn revenue · rank #24 of 100
Global rank
#36
of 100 by ESCRC
Sector rank
#6
of 10 in Technology Hardware
Expected Shortfall
$99.5m
Mean loss beyond ESCRC
Expected annual loss
$21.9m
Ordinary year
Revenue / COGS
57.0 / 47.0
USD bn · gross margin 17%
Suppliers modelled
15
4 correlated geographies

What does this ESCRC number mean?

An ESCRC of $76.4m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for Lenovo under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $99.5m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $21.9m.

Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.

Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile

Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.

By tier

Tier 1
85%
Tier 2
13%
Tier 3
1%

Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.

By supplier geography

Taiwan
48%
USA
25%
South Korea
19%
China
7%
Japan
1%
Singapore
0%

Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.

By supplier industry

semiconductor
53%
electronics assembly
44%
general mfg
3%

Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.

Largest supplier share
20%
Compal Electronics
Top-3 concentration
54%
of summed standalone VaR
Tier-1 share of risk
85%
Direct suppliers
Diversification benefit
65.2%
vs. sum of standalone VaR
SupplierTierCountry ExposureUSD m Standalone VaRUSD m Expected lossUSD m Tail intensityrevenue-days RoESCRCx
Compal ElectronicsNotebook final assembly T1 Taiwan 6110 44.2 5.1 2.2 28.4
IntelPC processors T1 USA 5640 39.5 2.7 2.1 29.4
WistronNotebook sub-assembly T1 Taiwan 4700 34.0 4.0 2.2 28.4
Samsung ElectronicsDRAM/NAND T1 South Korea 3760 27.5 2.7 2.2 28.1
TSMCFoundry wafers T2 Taiwan 2350 19.9 1.9 4.2 14.5
AMDPC processors T1 USA 2350 16.4 1.2 2.1 29.4
SK HynixDRAM modules T1 South Korea 1880 13.8 1.3 2.2 28.1
BOE TechnologyDisplay panels T1 China 2350 12.6 1.6 1.6 38.5
Delta ElectronicsPower adapters T2 Taiwan 940 4.1 0.5 2.2 28.4
Quanta ComputerNotebook/netbook contract manufacturing T2 Taiwan 940 3.7 0.4 2.0 31.5
Sunwoda ElectronicNotebook/laptop batteries T2 China 705 1.8 0.2 1.3 48.7
MurataCapacitors/filters T3 Japan 564 1.2 0.1 2.2 28.4
Luxshare PrecisionCables and power cords T3 China 376 0.5 0.1 1.3 48.7
GoerTekAcoustic components T3 China 329 0.4 0.1 1.3 48.7
AAC TechnologiesAcoustic/haptic components T3 Singapore 282 0.4 0.0 1.3 48.7

Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2

Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for Lenovo are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.

Sector peers

Nearest-ranked companies in Technology Hardware. Lenovo is highlighted.

Open in Compare
RankCompanyTickerCountrySectorRevenueUSD bnESCRCUSD mESCRC / Revenue%Risk GradeChange
20 Dell Technologies DELL USA Technology Hardware 88.0 125.9 0.143 SC4 High 0.0%
34 Sony Group 6758.T Japan Technology Hardware 85.0 91.4 0.108 SC4 High 0.0%
36 Lenovo 0992.HK China Technology Hardware 57.0 76.4 0.134 SC4 High 0.0%
41 Xiaomi 1810.HK China Technology Hardware 51.0 70.0 0.137 SC4 High 0.0%
48 Cisco Systems CSCO USA Technology Hardware 54.0 55.7 0.103 SC4 High 0.0%
51 LG Electronics 066570.KS South Korea Technology Hardware 65.0 50.3 0.077 SC3 Moderate 0.0%

See this for your own supply chain

You are looking at Lenovo's supply-chain risk capital: $76.4m against $57.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by Compal Electronics and Taiwan. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.

ESCRC calculated using SciRisk ESCRC Model v5.4.2 · calibrated priors 2026.09-5
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta
Simulation
100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
Seed
20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
Input basis
Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
Input fingerprint
6cb18cd17169
Input provenance for Lenovo
Financials
Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
Network
Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
Parameters
lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.
SciRisk ESCRC is an analytical estimate generated using the SciRisk Economic Supply Chain Risk Capital methodology. It is not a credit rating, investment recommendation or statement of financial condition. Figures are model-implied and intended for screening and comparison, not as calibrated capital requirements.

Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.