SciRisk Calculate your ESCRC
As of 2026-06-30| Model v5.4.2| Priors 2026.09-5| Calculated 2026-09-21| 100,000 paths · 95% · 365d| BETA Methodology

SciRisk 100 · Technology Hardware · Rank 20 of 100

Dell Technologies

DELL · USA · Technology Hardware   SC4 High

Economic Supply Chain Risk Capital
$125.9m
95% one-year Value-at-Risk · interval $125.2m to $126.6m (1.1% wide)
Risk Capital Intensity
0.143%
of $88.0bn revenue · rank #20 of 100
Global rank
#20
of 100 by ESCRC
Sector rank
#4
of 10 in Technology Hardware
Expected Shortfall
$164.4m
Mean loss beyond ESCRC
Expected annual loss
$37.1m
Ordinary year
Revenue / COGS
88.0 / 70.0
USD bn · gross margin 22%
Suppliers modelled
15
3 correlated geographies

What does this ESCRC number mean?

An ESCRC of $125.9m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for Dell Technologies under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $164.4m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $37.1m.

Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.

Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile

Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.

By tier

Tier 1
84%
Tier 2
15%
Tier 3
2%

Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.

By supplier geography

Taiwan
49%
USA
29%
South Korea
21%
Japan
1%

Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.

By supplier industry

electronics assembly
50%
semiconductor
44%
general mfg
5%

Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.

Largest supplier share
23%
Foxconn
Top-3 concentration
50%
of summed standalone VaR
Tier-1 share of risk
84%
Direct suppliers
Diversification benefit
65.6%
vs. sum of standalone VaR
SupplierTierCountry ExposureUSD m Standalone VaRUSD m Expected lossUSD m Tail intensityrevenue-days RoESCRCx
FoxconnServer/PC final assembly T1 Taiwan 11200 83.9 9.7 2.2 36.8
IntelServer/PC processors T1 USA 7700 55.9 4.1 2.1 38.1
WistronNotebook sub-assembly T1 Taiwan 5600 42.0 4.8 2.2 36.8
Samsung ElectronicsDRAM/NAND T1 South Korea 4900 37.2 3.7 2.2 36.3
NVIDIAAI accelerator modules T1 USA 6300 34.9 3.3 1.6 49.8
TSMCFoundry wafers T2 Taiwan 3500 30.7 3.0 4.2 18.8
SK HynixDRAM modules T1 South Korea 3500 26.6 2.7 2.2 36.3
Quanta ComputerODM notebook design and manufacturing (Dell XPS/Latitude) T1 Taiwan 2100 14.2 1.6 2.0 40.8
LG DisplayNotebook display panels T1 South Korea 2100 11.6 1.4 1.6 49.8
Delta ElectronicsPower supply modules T2 Taiwan 1750 7.9 0.9 2.2 36.8
AMDServer/PC processors (EPYC) T2 USA 1750 7.6 0.5 2.1 38.1
AmphenolConnectors/cable assemblies T2 USA 1400 4.7 0.4 1.6 49.8
KioxiaEnterprise SSDs / NAND flash T3 Japan 1050 4.6 0.4 4.2 18.8
BroadcomServer/networking Ethernet adapters T2 USA 1400 3.7 0.4 1.3 63.0
SeagateEnterprise hard disk drives T3 USA 840 1.1 0.1 1.3 63.0

Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2

Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for Dell Technologies are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.

Sector peers

Nearest-ranked companies in Technology Hardware. Dell Technologies is highlighted.

Open in Compare
RankCompanyTickerCountrySectorRevenueUSD bnESCRCUSD mESCRC / Revenue%Risk GradeChange
2 Apple AAPL USA Technology Hardware 383.0 856.3 0.224 SC5 Very High 0.0%
5 HP HPQ USA Technology Hardware 127.0 309.9 0.244 SC5 Very High 0.0%
7 Hon Hai Precision (Foxconn) 2317.TW Taiwan Technology Hardware 215.0 282.7 0.132 SC4 High 0.0%
20 Dell Technologies DELL USA Technology Hardware 88.0 125.9 0.143 SC4 High 0.0%
34 Sony Group 6758.T Japan Technology Hardware 85.0 91.4 0.108 SC4 High 0.0%
36 Lenovo 0992.HK China Technology Hardware 57.0 76.4 0.134 SC4 High 0.0%

See this for your own supply chain

You are looking at Dell Technologies's supply-chain risk capital: $125.9m against $88.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by Foxconn and Taiwan. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.

ESCRC calculated using SciRisk ESCRC Model v5.4.2 · calibrated priors 2026.09-5
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta
Simulation
100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
Seed
20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
Input basis
Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
Input fingerprint
fcab4719ff2e
Input provenance for Dell Technologies
Financials
Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
Network
Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
Parameters
lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.
SciRisk ESCRC is an analytical estimate generated using the SciRisk Economic Supply Chain Risk Capital methodology. It is not a credit rating, investment recommendation or statement of financial condition. Figures are model-implied and intended for screening and comparison, not as calibrated capital requirements.

Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.