SciRisk 100 · Technology Hardware · Rank 2 of 100

Apple

AAPL · USA · Technology Hardware SC5 Very High

Economic Supply Chain Risk Capital

$856.3m

95% one-year Value-at-Risk · interval $850.3m to $860.5m (1.2% wide)

Risk Capital Intensity

0.224%

of $383.0bn revenue · 9th highest in the index

Global rank

#2

of 100 by ESCRC

Sector rank

#1

of 10 in Technology Hardware

Expected Shortfall

$1.08bn

Mean loss beyond ESCRC

Expected annual loss

$167.4m

Ordinary year

Revenue / COGS

383.0 / 214.0

USD bn · gross margin 45%

Suppliers modelled

15

4 correlated geographies

What does this ESCRC number mean?

An ESCRC of $856.3m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for Apple under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $1.08bn; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $167.4m.

Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.

Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile

Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.

By tier

Tier 1

93%

Tier 2

7%

Tier 3

0%

Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.

By supplier geography

Taiwan

54%

China

25%

South Korea

11%

Japan

5%

USA

5%

Germany

0%

Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.

By supplier industry

semiconductor

61%

electronics assembly

38%

chemicals materials

1%

raw materials mining

0%

Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.

Largest supplier share

52%

TSMC

Top-3 concentration

83%

of summed standalone VaR

Tier-1 share of risk

93%

Direct suppliers

Diversification benefit

46.3%

vs. sum of standalone VaR

Supplier	Tier	Country	ExposureUSD m	Standalone VaRUSD m	Expected lossUSD m	Tail intensityrevenue-days	RoESCRCx
TSMCA-series chips	T1	Taiwan	40000	831.6	81.0	4.2	38.6
FoxconnFinal assembly	T1	China	50000	394.2	47.6	1.6	102.0
Samsung DisplayOLED panels	T1	South Korea	12000	94.6	11.6	1.6	102.0
LG InnotekCamera modules	T1	South Korea	6000	47.3	5.8	1.6	102.0
MurataCapacitors/filters	T1	Japan	4000	42.7	4.9	2.2	75.4
Shin-Etsu ChemicalSilicon wafers	T2	Japan	3000	37.4	3.7	4.2	38.6
BroadcomWiFi/BT chips	T1	USA	3500	36.1	2.6	2.1	77.9
HynixDRAM/NAND	T2	South Korea	5000	32.4	3.2	2.2	74.4
PegatronSub-assembly	T2	Taiwan	5000	32.0	3.6	2.2	75.4
SkyworksRF chips	T1	USA	3000	31.0	2.2	2.1	77.9
CorningGorilla Glass	T2	USA	2000	7.8	0.6	1.3	124.1
Shin-Etsu WaferPolysilicon wafers	T3	Japan	600	3.7	0.4	4.2	38.6
Wacker ChemiePolysilicon	T3	Germany	1000	1.9	0.1	1.3	124.1
GlencoreCobalt/nickel	T3	Switzerland	500	1.1	0.1	1.5	107.3
MP MaterialsRare earth magnet materials	T3	USA	500	1.1	0.1	1.5	107.3

The calculator ships a researched network for Apple

This index entry uses calibrated bucket defaults for every supplier's disruption rate, recovery time and revenue-at-risk fraction — the uniform rule applied to all 100 companies — and prices severity pro-rata, by each supplier's share of cost. The ESCRC Calculator ships a researched network for this company ("Apple iPhone"): supplier-specific parameters, priced instead by each supplier's declared criticality — the share of output that halts when it stops. Same engine, same seed, same settings, but two layers differ, the parameters and the severity formula:

SciRisk 100 entry (bucket defaults, pro-rata): $856.3m · 0.224% of revenue
Calculator preset (researched, criticality): $30.69bn · 8.013% of revenue
Ratio: 35.84x

This difference is not a measure of what supplier-level research is worth: it compounds two separate changes, and the formula change is generally the larger of the two. Pro-rata pricing bounds a supplier's loss by its share of cost, so it understates a concentrated, low-spend bottleneck by construction; criticality pricing does not, and rests on declared criticality and unrecoverability values that are operator judgment rather than model outputs. The two figures answer different questions, and neither is used to adjust the other. It is why index figures are labelled preliminary.

Open the ESCRC Calculator

Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2

Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for Apple are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.

Sector peers

Nearest-ranked companies in Technology Hardware. Apple is highlighted.

Open in Compare

Rank	Company	Ticker	Country	Sector	RevenueUSD bn	ESCRCUSD m	ESCRC / Revenue%	Risk Grade	Change
2	Apple	AAPL	USA	Technology Hardware	383.0	856.3	0.224	SC5 Very High	0.0%
5	HP	HPQ	USA	Technology Hardware	127.0	309.9	0.244	SC5 Very High	0.0%
7	Hon Hai Precision (Foxconn)	2317.TW	Taiwan	Technology Hardware	215.0	282.7	0.132	SC4 High	0.0%
20	Dell Technologies	DELL	USA	Technology Hardware	88.0	125.9	0.143	SC4 High	0.0%
34	Sony Group	6758.T	Japan	Technology Hardware	85.0	91.4	0.108	SC4 High	0.0%
36	Lenovo	0992.HK	China	Technology Hardware	57.0	76.4	0.134	SC4 High	0.0%

See this for your own supply chain

You are looking at Apple's supply-chain risk capital: $856.3m against $383.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by TSMC and Taiwan. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.

Calculate your ESCRC Load Apple's network Compare with peers

ESCRC calculated using SciRisk ESCRC Model v5.4.2 · calibrated priors 2026.09-5
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta

Simulation: 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
Seed: 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
Input basis: Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
Input fingerprint: 4e9cdbaee857

Input provenance for Apple

Financials: Production calculator preset focal-firm figures.
Network: Production calculator preset network (Apple iPhone) — supplier names, tiers, geographies, products and purchase volumes as shipped.
Parameters: lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.

SciRisk ESCRC is an analytical estimate generated using the SciRisk Economic Supply Chain Risk Capital methodology. It is not a credit rating, investment recommendation or statement of financial condition. Figures are model-implied and intended for screening and comparison, not as calibrated capital requirements.

Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.