SciRisk 100 · Technology Hardware · Rank 48 of 100
Cisco Systems
CSCO · USA · Technology Hardware SC4 High
What does this ESCRC number mean?
An ESCRC of $55.7m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for Cisco Systems under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $74.2m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $15.9m.
Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.
Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile
Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.
By tier
Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.
By supplier geography
Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.
By supplier industry
Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.
| Supplier | Tier | Country | ExposureUSD m | Standalone VaRUSD m | Expected lossUSD m | Tail intensityrevenue-days | RoESCRCx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FoxconnNetworking hardware assembly | T1 | China | 2800 | 33.3 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 145.2 |
| BroadcomSwitching ASICs | T1 | USA | 2000 | 31.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 110.9 |
| TSMCFoundry wafers | T2 | Taiwan | 1200 | 22.6 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 55.0 |
| JabilEMS assembly | T1 | USA | 1800 | 21.4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 145.2 |
| CelesticaEMS assembly | T1 | Canada | 1400 | 16.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 145.2 |
| MarvellNetwork processors | T1 | USA | 800 | 12.5 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 110.9 |
| AmphenolConnectors/optics cages | T1 | USA | 600 | 7.1 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 145.2 |
| AMDSemiconductor components (switch/router silicon) | T1 | USA | 400 | 6.2 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 110.9 |
| Micron TechnologyMemory chips (DRAM/NAND) for networking hardware | T1 | USA | 300 | 4.7 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 110.8 |
| CoherentOptical transceiver modules | T2 | USA | 600 | 4.3 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 145.2 |
| FlexContract electronics manufacturing | T1 | Singapore | 400 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 183.5 |
| SanminaContract manufacturing of networking hardware | T2 | USA | 500 | 2.8 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 183.6 |
| FabrinetOptical transceiver manufacturing services | T2 | Thailand | 300 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 183.5 |
| MurataCapacitors/filters | T3 | Japan | 300 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 107.2 |
| TTM TechnologiesPrinted circuit boards | T2 | USA | 200 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 183.6 |
Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2
Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for Cisco Systems are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.
Sector peers
Nearest-ranked companies in Technology Hardware. Cisco Systems is highlighted.
| Rank | Company | Ticker | Country | Sector | RevenueUSD bn | ESCRCUSD m | ESCRC / Revenue% | Risk Grade | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | Sony Group | 6758.T | Japan | Technology Hardware | 85.0 | 91.4 | 0.108 | SC4 High | 0.0% |
| 36 | Lenovo | 0992.HK | China | Technology Hardware | 57.0 | 76.4 | 0.134 | SC4 High | 0.0% |
| 41 | Xiaomi | 1810.HK | China | Technology Hardware | 51.0 | 70.0 | 0.137 | SC4 High | 0.0% |
| 48 | Cisco Systems | CSCO | USA | Technology Hardware | 54.0 | 55.7 | 0.103 | SC4 High | 0.0% |
| 51 | LG Electronics | 066570.KS | South Korea | Technology Hardware | 65.0 | 50.3 | 0.077 | SC3 Moderate | 0.0% |
| 56 | Panasonic Holdings | 6752.T | Japan | Technology Hardware | 55.0 | 44.4 | 0.081 | SC3 Moderate | 0.0% |
See this for your own supply chain
You are looking at Cisco Systems's supply-chain risk capital: $55.7m against $54.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by Foxconn and USA. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta
- Simulation
- 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
- Seed
- 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
- Input basis
- Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
- Input fingerprint
- bffe965e075d
- Financials
- Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
- Network
- Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
- Parameters
- lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.
Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.