SciRisk 100 · Retail & Distribution · Rank 28 of 100
Costco Wholesale
COST · USA · Retail & Distribution SC1 Very Low
What does this ESCRC number mean?
An ESCRC of $101.6m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for Costco Wholesale under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $193.6m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $26.0m.
Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.
Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile
Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.
By tier
Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.
By supplier geography
Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.
By supplier industry
Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.
| Supplier | Tier | Country | ExposureUSD m | Standalone VaRUSD m | Expected lossUSD m | Tail intensityrevenue-days | RoESCRCx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson FoodsProtein products | T1 | USA | 6660 | 38.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 24.6 |
| CargillFresh food/protein inputs | T1 | USA | 6660 | 38.8 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 24.6 |
| Procter & GambleHousehold goods | T1 | USA | 6660 | 26.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 36.1 |
| PepsiCoFood & beverage goods | T1 | USA | 5550 | 22.1 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 36.1 |
| Crystal International GroupApparel manufacturing | T1 | Hong Kong | 7770 | 20.5 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 54.5 |
| MaerskOcean freight/logistics | T1 | Denmark | 6660 | 13.8 | 6.1 | 0.7 | 69.2 |
| Shenzhou InternationalPrivate-label apparel | T2 | China | 5550 | 8.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 54.5 |
| AmcorPackaging | T2 | Switzerland | 4440 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 54.6 |
| First Quality EnterprisesKirkland Signature private-label diaper manufacturing | T2 | USA | 1776 | 4.2 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 36.1 |
| SinopecPackaging resin feedstock | T3 | China | 2220 | 2.8 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 34.7 |
Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2
Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for Costco Wholesale are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.
Sector peers
Nearest-ranked companies in Retail & Distribution. Costco Wholesale is highlighted.
| Rank | Company | Ticker | Country | Sector | RevenueUSD bn | ESCRCUSD m | ESCRC / Revenue% | Risk Grade | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Amazon | AMZN | USA | Retail & Distribution | 638.0 | 349.3 | 0.055 | SC2 Low | ▲ +7.6% |
| 11 | Walmart | WMT | USA | Retail & Distribution | 648.0 | 238.6 | 0.037 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +27.3% |
| 28 | Costco Wholesale | COST | USA | Retail & Distribution | 254.0 | 101.6 | 0.040 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +36.0% |
| 50 | The Home Depot | HD | USA | Retail & Distribution | 152.0 | 52.6 | 0.035 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +12.8% |
| 57 | Target | TGT | USA | Retail & Distribution | 107.0 | 44.3 | 0.041 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +40.0% |
| 60 | Alibaba Group | BABA | China | Retail & Distribution | 130.0 | 37.6 | 0.029 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +8.7% |
See this for your own supply chain
You are looking at Costco Wholesale's supply-chain risk capital: $101.6m against $254.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by Tyson Foods and USA. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta
- Simulation
- 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
- Seed
- 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
- Input basis
- Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
- Input fingerprint
- 05fb912c3cfe
- Financials
- Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
- Network
- Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
- Parameters
- lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.
- Fallback
- Some suppliers resolve to an industry bucket with no preset coverage for revenue-at-risk fraction (food agri, apparel textiles, logistics freight, packaging). This parameter has no external benchmark for any industry in this dataset, so it uses the median across all preset suppliers.
Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.