SciRisk 100 · Retail & Distribution · Rank 57 of 100
Target
TGT · USA · Retail & Distribution SC1 Very Low
What does this ESCRC number mean?
An ESCRC of $44.3m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for Target under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $81.2m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $10.5m.
Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.
Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile
Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.
By tier
Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.
By supplier geography
Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.
By supplier industry
Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.
| Supplier | Tier | Country | ExposureUSD m | Standalone VaRUSD m | Expected lossUSD m | Tail intensityrevenue-days | RoESCRCx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Procter & GambleHousehold goods | T1 | USA | 2660 | 13.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 80.2 |
| Crystal International GroupApparel manufacturing (listed Target customer) | T1 | Hong Kong | 3420 | 11.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 121.5 |
| PepsiCoFood & beverage goods | T1 | USA | 1900 | 9.3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 80.3 |
| UnileverHousehold & personal care | T1 | United Kingdom | 1520 | 7.5 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 80.3 |
| Shenzhou InternationalPrivate-label apparel | T1 | China | 2280 | 7.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 121.5 |
| MaerskOcean freight/logistics | T1 | Denmark | 2280 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 154.4 |
| FoxconnConsumer electronics manufacturing | T2 | China | 1900 | 5.6 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 80.2 |
| AmcorPackaging | T2 | Switzerland | 1520 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 121.5 |
| SinopecPackaging resin feedstock | T3 | China | 760 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 77.1 |
| Newell BrandsHousehold goods, housewares and writing instruments (Rubbermaid, Sharpie, Coleman, Oster) | T2 | USA | 456 | 0.0 | 0.1 | — | — |
Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2
Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for Target are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.
Sector peers
Nearest-ranked companies in Retail & Distribution. Target is highlighted.
| Rank | Company | Ticker | Country | Sector | RevenueUSD bn | ESCRCUSD m | ESCRC / Revenue% | Risk Grade | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Costco Wholesale | COST | USA | Retail & Distribution | 254.0 | 101.6 | 0.040 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +36.0% |
| 50 | The Home Depot | HD | USA | Retail & Distribution | 152.0 | 52.6 | 0.035 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +12.8% |
| 57 | Target | TGT | USA | Retail & Distribution | 107.0 | 44.3 | 0.041 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +40.0% |
| 60 | Alibaba Group | BABA | China | Retail & Distribution | 130.0 | 37.6 | 0.029 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +8.7% |
| 63 | IKEA (Ingka Group) | PRIVATE | Netherlands | Retail & Distribution | 47.0 | 33.1 | 0.070 | SC3 Moderate | ▲ +78.4% |
| 64 | Carrefour | CA.PA | France | Retail & Distribution | 87.0 | 32.2 | 0.037 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +46.4% |
See this for your own supply chain
You are looking at Target's supply-chain risk capital: $44.3m against $107.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by Procter & Gamble and USA. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta
- Simulation
- 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
- Seed
- 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
- Input basis
- Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
- Input fingerprint
- d6ed50bd4a30
- Financials
- Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
- Network
- Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
- Parameters
- lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.
- Fallback
- Some suppliers resolve to an industry bucket with no preset coverage for revenue-at-risk fraction (apparel textiles, logistics freight, packaging). This parameter has no external benchmark for any industry in this dataset, so it uses the median across all preset suppliers.
Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.