SciRisk 100 · Food & Beverage · Rank 54 of 100

Tyson Foods

TSN · USA · Food & Beverage SC3 Moderate

Economic Supply Chain Risk Capital

$48.3m

95% one-year Value-at-Risk · interval $46.5m to $49.4m (6.0% wide)

Risk Capital Intensity

0.091%

of $53.0bn revenue · rank #40 of 100

Global rank

#54

of 100 by ESCRC

Sector rank

#4

of 8 in Food & Beverage

Expected Shortfall

$78.8m

Mean loss beyond ESCRC

Expected annual loss

$9.6m

Ordinary year

Revenue / COGS

53.0 / 49.0

USD bn · gross margin 7%

Suppliers modelled

9

2 correlated geographies

What does this ESCRC number mean?

An ESCRC of $48.3m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for Tyson Foods under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $78.8m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $9.6m.

Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.

Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile

Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.

By tier

Tier 1

92%

Tier 2

7%

Tier 3

1%

Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.

By supplier geography

USA

90%

Switzerland

7%

Canada

4%

Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.

By supplier industry

food agri

84%

packaging

11%

general mfg

4%

raw materials mining

1%

logistics freight

1%

Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.

Largest supplier share

35%

Cargill

Top-3 concentration

84%

of summed standalone VaR

Tier-1 share of risk

92%

Direct suppliers

Diversification benefit

48.3%

vs. sum of standalone VaR

Supplier	Tier	Country	ExposureUSD m	Standalone VaRUSD m	Expected lossUSD m	Tail intensityrevenue-days	RoESCRCx
CargillFeed grain/protein inputs	T1	USA	5880	32.4	3.0	1.9	13.6
Archer Daniels MidlandFeed grain/soybean meal	T1	USA	4900	27.0	2.5	1.9	13.6
BungeOilseed/feed inputs	T1	USA	3430	18.9	1.7	1.9	13.6
AmcorFood packaging film	T1	Switzerland	1715	4.3	0.6	0.8	30.3
Sealed AirProtective food packaging	T1	USA	1470	3.7	0.6	0.8	30.3
NutrienFertiliser (feed-crop input)	T2	Canada	1470	3.3	0.3	1.3	20.0
AmcorFlexible packaging	T2	Switzerland	1470	2.2	0.3	0.8	30.3
MosaicPhosphate minerals	T3	USA	735	1.0	0.1	1.5	16.6
LineageCold-storage warehousing/cold-chain logistics services	T2	USA	588	0.7	0.4	0.7	38.2

Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2

Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for Tyson Foods are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.

Sector peers

Nearest-ranked companies in Food & Beverage. Tyson Foods is highlighted.

Open in Compare

Rank	Company	Ticker	Country	Sector	RevenueUSD bn	ESCRCUSD m	ESCRC / Revenue%	Risk Grade	Change
39	JBS	JBSS3.SA	Brazil	Food & Beverage	73.0	72.2	0.099	SC3 Moderate	▲ +45.5%
43	PepsiCo	PEP	USA	Food & Beverage	92.0	63.6	0.069	SC3 Moderate	▲ +30.6%
54	Tyson Foods	TSN	USA	Food & Beverage	53.0	48.3	0.091	SC3 Moderate	▲ +38.6%
62	Anheuser-Busch InBev	BUD	Belgium	Food & Beverage	59.0	33.9	0.057	SC2 Low	▲ +7.7%
67	Mondelez International	MDLZ	USA	Food & Beverage	36.0	28.8	0.080	SC3 Moderate	▲ +44.6%
70	The Coca-Cola Company	KO	USA	Food & Beverage	46.0	27.2	0.059	SC2 Low	▲ +12.5%

See this for your own supply chain

You are looking at Tyson Foods's supply-chain risk capital: $48.3m against $53.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by Cargill and USA. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.

Calculate your ESCRC Load Tyson Foods's network Compare with peers

ESCRC calculated using SciRisk ESCRC Model v5.4.2 · calibrated priors 2026.09-5
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta

Simulation: 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
Seed: 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
Input basis: Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
Input fingerprint: 6aed0b5c95f4

Input provenance for Tyson Foods

Financials: Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
Network: Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
Parameters: lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.
Fallback: Some suppliers resolve to an industry bucket with no preset coverage for revenue-at-risk fraction (food agri, packaging, logistics freight). This parameter has no external benchmark for any industry in this dataset, so it uses the median across all preset suppliers.

SciRisk ESCRC is an analytical estimate generated using the SciRisk Economic Supply Chain Risk Capital methodology. It is not a credit rating, investment recommendation or statement of financial condition. Figures are model-implied and intended for screening and comparison, not as calibrated capital requirements.

Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.