SciRisk 100 · Food & Beverage · Rank 67 of 100

Mondelez International

MDLZ · USA · Food & Beverage SC3 Moderate

Economic Supply Chain Risk Capital

$28.8m

95% one-year Value-at-Risk · interval collapsed (loss plateau)

Risk Capital Intensity

0.080%

of $36.0bn revenue · rank #44 of 100

Global rank

#67

of 100 by ESCRC

Sector rank

#6

of 8 in Food & Beverage

Expected Shortfall

$40.8m

Mean loss beyond ESCRC

Expected annual loss

$6.6m

Ordinary year

Revenue / COGS

36.0 / 23.0

USD bn · gross margin 37%

Suppliers modelled

9

5 correlated geographies

What does this ESCRC number mean?

An ESCRC of $28.8m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for Mondelez International under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $40.8m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $6.6m.

Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.

Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile

Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.

By tier

Tier 1

80%

Tier 2

13%

Tier 3

7%

Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.

By supplier geography

Switzerland

32%

USA

28%

Singapore

27%

Brazil

7%

Indonesia

5%

United Kingdom

1%

Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.

By supplier industry

food agri

86%

logistics freight

7%

packaging

6%

general mfg

1%

Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.

Largest supplier share

26%

Barry Callebaut

Top-3 concentration

62%

of summed standalone VaR

Tier-1 share of risk

80%

Direct suppliers

Diversification benefit

55.5%

vs. sum of standalone VaR

Supplier	Tier	Country	ExposureUSD m	Standalone VaRUSD m	Expected lossUSD m	Tail intensityrevenue-days	RoESCRCx
Barry CallebautCocoa/chocolate ingredients	T1	Switzerland	2070	16.5	1.4	1.9	72.5
Olam GroupCocoa sourcing	T1	Singapore	1610	12.8	1.3	1.9	72.5
CargillCocoa/agricultural ingredients	T1	USA	1380	11.0	1.0	1.9	72.5
Archer Daniels MidlandGrain/sweeteners	T1	USA	920	7.3	0.7	1.9	72.5
Wilmar InternationalVegetable fats	T2	Singapore	920	4.4	0.5	1.9	72.5
SuzanoPulp/board	T3	Brazil	345	4.3	0.5	9.7	13.8
AmcorFlexible packaging	T1	Switzerland	1150	4.1	0.6	0.8	160.6
Golden Agri-ResourcesPalm oil	T2	Indonesia	690	3.3	0.6	1.9	72.4
Tate & LyleSugar-reduction/specialty ingredients	T2	United Kingdom	230	0.8	0.1	1.3	106.1

Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2

Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for Mondelez International are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.

Sector peers

Nearest-ranked companies in Food & Beverage. Mondelez International is highlighted.

Open in Compare

Rank	Company	Ticker	Country	Sector	RevenueUSD bn	ESCRCUSD m	ESCRC / Revenue%	Risk Grade	Change
43	PepsiCo	PEP	USA	Food & Beverage	92.0	63.6	0.069	SC3 Moderate	▲ +30.6%
54	Tyson Foods	TSN	USA	Food & Beverage	53.0	48.3	0.091	SC3 Moderate	▲ +38.6%
62	Anheuser-Busch InBev	BUD	Belgium	Food & Beverage	59.0	33.9	0.057	SC2 Low	▲ +7.7%
67	Mondelez International	MDLZ	USA	Food & Beverage	36.0	28.8	0.080	SC3 Moderate	▲ +44.6%
70	The Coca-Cola Company	KO	USA	Food & Beverage	46.0	27.2	0.059	SC2 Low	▲ +12.5%
81	Danone	BN.PA	France	Food & Beverage	29.0	18.4	0.064	SC3 Moderate	▲ +26.5%

See this for your own supply chain

You are looking at Mondelez International's supply-chain risk capital: $28.8m against $36.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by Barry Callebaut and Switzerland. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.

Calculate your ESCRC Load Mondelez International's network Compare with peers

ESCRC calculated using SciRisk ESCRC Model v5.4.2 · calibrated priors 2026.09-5
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta

Simulation: 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
Seed: 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
Input basis: Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
Input fingerprint: 2af4c7d1a548

Input provenance for Mondelez International

Financials: Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
Network: Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
Parameters: lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.
Fallback: Some suppliers resolve to an industry bucket with no preset coverage for revenue-at-risk fraction (food agri, packaging, logistics freight). This parameter has no external benchmark for any industry in this dataset, so it uses the median across all preset suppliers.

SciRisk ESCRC is an analytical estimate generated using the SciRisk Economic Supply Chain Risk Capital methodology. It is not a credit rating, investment recommendation or statement of financial condition. Figures are model-implied and intended for screening and comparison, not as calibrated capital requirements.

Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.