SciRisk 100 · Food & Beverage · Rank 70 of 100
The Coca-Cola Company
KO · USA · Food & Beverage SC2 Low
What does this ESCRC number mean?
An ESCRC of $27.2m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for The Coca-Cola Company under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $46.0m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $6.7m.
Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.
Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile
Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.
By tier
Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.
By supplier geography
Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.
By supplier industry
Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.
| Supplier | Tier | Country | ExposureUSD m | Standalone VaRUSD m | Expected lossUSD m | Tail intensityrevenue-days | RoESCRCx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archer Daniels MidlandCorn sweetener | T1 | USA | 1080 | 14.1 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 119.6 |
| Ball CorporationAluminium cans | T1 | USA | 1440 | 8.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 264.9 |
| AlcoaAluminium sheet | T2 | USA | 720 | 8.0 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 84.3 |
| IngredionSweeteners | T1 | USA | 540 | 7.0 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 119.6 |
| Ardagh GroupGlass bottles | T1 | Luxembourg | 630 | 5.8 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 168.2 |
| AmcorPET bottles/closures | T1 | Switzerland | 900 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 264.9 |
| Indorama VenturesPET resin | T2 | Thailand | 810 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 168.2 |
| AmcorFlexible packaging | T1 | Switzerland | 720 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 264.9 |
| NovelisAluminum beverage can sheet | T1 | USA | 270 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 174.9 |
| Rio TintoBauxite/alumina | T3 | United Kingdom | 270 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 2.6 | 84.3 |
Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2
Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for The Coca-Cola Company are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.
Sector peers
Nearest-ranked companies in Food & Beverage. The Coca-Cola Company is highlighted.
| Rank | Company | Ticker | Country | Sector | RevenueUSD bn | ESCRCUSD m | ESCRC / Revenue% | Risk Grade | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | PepsiCo | PEP | USA | Food & Beverage | 92.0 | 63.6 | 0.069 | SC3 Moderate | ▲ +30.6% |
| 54 | Tyson Foods | TSN | USA | Food & Beverage | 53.0 | 48.3 | 0.091 | SC3 Moderate | ▲ +38.6% |
| 62 | Anheuser-Busch InBev | BUD | Belgium | Food & Beverage | 59.0 | 33.9 | 0.057 | SC2 Low | ▲ +7.7% |
| 67 | Mondelez International | MDLZ | USA | Food & Beverage | 36.0 | 28.8 | 0.080 | SC3 Moderate | ▲ +44.6% |
| 70 | The Coca-Cola Company | KO | USA | Food & Beverage | 46.0 | 27.2 | 0.059 | SC2 Low | ▲ +12.5% |
| 81 | Danone | BN.PA | France | Food & Beverage | 29.0 | 18.4 | 0.064 | SC3 Moderate | ▲ +26.5% |
See this for your own supply chain
You are looking at The Coca-Cola Company's supply-chain risk capital: $27.2m against $46.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by Archer Daniels Midland and USA. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta
- Simulation
- 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
- Seed
- 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
- Input basis
- Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
- Input fingerprint
- 8aad5b6f3ea2
- Financials
- Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
- Network
- Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
- Parameters
- lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.
- Fallback
- Some suppliers resolve to an industry bucket with no coverage in the shipped preset networks (metals materials inputs). Their recovery times use the median across all preset suppliers rather than a bucket-specific or externally-cited one.
- Fallback
- Some suppliers resolve to an industry bucket with no preset coverage for revenue-at-risk fraction (packaging, food agri, metals materials inputs). This parameter has no external benchmark for any industry in this dataset, so it uses the median across all preset suppliers.
Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.