SciRisk Calculate your ESCRC
As of 2026-06-30| Model v5.4.2| Priors 2026.09-5| Calculated 2026-09-21| 100,000 paths · 95% · 365d| BETA Methodology

SciRisk 100 · Food & Beverage · Rank 62 of 100

Anheuser-Busch InBev

BUD · Belgium · Food & Beverage   SC2 Low

Economic Supply Chain Risk Capital
$33.9m
95% one-year Value-at-Risk · interval $33.3m to $34.7m (4.0% wide)
Risk Capital Intensity
0.057%
of $59.0bn revenue · rank #62 of 100
Global rank
#62
of 100 by ESCRC
Sector rank
#5
of 8 in Food & Beverage
Expected Shortfall
$57.8m
Mean loss beyond ESCRC
Expected annual loss
$8.5m
Ordinary year
Revenue / COGS
59.0 / 27.0
USD bn · gross margin 55%
Suppliers modelled
10
3 correlated geographies

What does this ESCRC number mean?

An ESCRC of $33.9m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for Anheuser-Busch InBev under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $57.8m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $8.5m.

Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.

Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile

Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.

By tier

Tier 1
77%
Tier 2
21%
Tier 3
2%

Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.

By supplier geography

USA
45%
France
18%
Luxembourg
15%
Belgium
14%
United Kingdom
7%

Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.

By supplier industry

food agri
40%
packaging
22%
chemicals materials
18%
metals materials inputs
16%
general mfg
5%

Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.

Largest supplier share
18%
Malteurop
Top-3 concentration
48%
of summed standalone VaR
Tier-1 share of risk
77%
Direct suppliers
Diversification benefit
59.7%
vs. sum of standalone VaR
SupplierTierCountry ExposureUSD m Standalone VaRUSD m Expected lossUSD m Tail intensityrevenue-days RoESCRCx
MalteuropMalted barley T1 France 1350 15.0 1.3 1.9 106.9
Ardagh GroupGlass bottles T1 Luxembourg 1620 12.8 1.1 1.3 150.3
Ball CorporationAluminium cans T1 USA 2430 12.2 2.0 0.8 236.6
BoortmaltMalted barley T1 Belgium 1080 12.0 1.0 1.9 106.9
AlcoaAluminium sheet T2 USA 1215 11.5 0.8 2.6 75.3
Archer Daniels MidlandGrain/adjuncts T2 USA 945 6.3 0.6 1.9 106.9
Crown HoldingsMetal closures/cans T1 USA 1215 6.1 1.0 0.8 236.6
LindeFood-grade CO2 T1 United Kingdom 540 4.1 0.4 1.3 156.3
O-I Glass (Owens-Illinois)Glass bottles/containers T1 USA 270 2.1 0.2 1.3 150.3
Rio TintoBauxite/alumina T3 United Kingdom 405 1.9 0.1 2.6 75.3

Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2

Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for Anheuser-Busch InBev are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.

Sector peers

Nearest-ranked companies in Food & Beverage. Anheuser-Busch InBev is highlighted.

Open in Compare
RankCompanyTickerCountrySectorRevenueUSD bnESCRCUSD mESCRC / Revenue%Risk GradeChange
43 PepsiCo PEP USA Food & Beverage 92.0 63.6 0.069 SC3 Moderate ▲ +30.6%
54 Tyson Foods TSN USA Food & Beverage 53.0 48.3 0.091 SC3 Moderate ▲ +38.6%
62 Anheuser-Busch InBev BUD Belgium Food & Beverage 59.0 33.9 0.057 SC2 Low ▲ +7.7%
67 Mondelez International MDLZ USA Food & Beverage 36.0 28.8 0.080 SC3 Moderate ▲ +44.6%
70 The Coca-Cola Company KO USA Food & Beverage 46.0 27.2 0.059 SC2 Low ▲ +12.5%
81 Danone BN.PA France Food & Beverage 29.0 18.4 0.064 SC3 Moderate ▲ +26.5%

See this for your own supply chain

You are looking at Anheuser-Busch InBev's supply-chain risk capital: $33.9m against $59.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by Malteurop and USA. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.

ESCRC calculated using SciRisk ESCRC Model v5.4.2 · calibrated priors 2026.09-5
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta
Simulation
100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
Seed
20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
Input basis
Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
Input fingerprint
708bd1c36d4f
Input provenance for Anheuser-Busch InBev
Financials
Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
Network
Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
Parameters
lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.
Fallback
Some suppliers resolve to an industry bucket with no coverage in the shipped preset networks (metals materials inputs). Their recovery times use the median across all preset suppliers rather than a bucket-specific or externally-cited one.
Fallback
Some suppliers resolve to an industry bucket with no preset coverage for revenue-at-risk fraction (packaging, food agri, metals materials inputs). This parameter has no external benchmark for any industry in this dataset, so it uses the median across all preset suppliers.
SciRisk ESCRC is an analytical estimate generated using the SciRisk Economic Supply Chain Risk Capital methodology. It is not a credit rating, investment recommendation or statement of financial condition. Figures are model-implied and intended for screening and comparison, not as calibrated capital requirements.

Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.