SciRisk 100 · Semiconductors · Rank 82 of 100
Texas Instruments
TXN · USA · Semiconductors SC4 High
What does this ESCRC number mean?
An ESCRC of $17.9m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for Texas Instruments under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $24.2m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $4.9m.
Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.
Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile
Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.
By tier
Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.
By supplier geography
Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.
By supplier industry
Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.
| Supplier | Tier | Country | ExposureUSD m | Standalone VaRUSD m | Expected lossUSD m | Tail intensityrevenue-days | RoESCRCx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SUMCOSilicon wafers 300mm | T1 | Japan | 414 | 10.9 | 1.1 | 4.2 | 49.8 |
| Shin-Etsu ChemicalSilicon wafers | T1 | Japan | 345 | 9.1 | 0.9 | 4.2 | 49.8 |
| Tokyo ElectronSemiconductor deposition/etch/lithography equipment | T1 | Japan | 311 | 8.2 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 49.8 |
| Amkor TechnologyPackaging/test | T1 | South Korea | 483 | 6.6 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 96.0 |
| Applied MaterialsCVD/PVD deposition equipment | T1 | USA | 414 | 5.4 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 100.5 |
| ASMLDUV lithography | T1 | Netherlands | 345 | 4.7 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 96.0 |
| Lam ResearchEtch systems | T1 | USA | 276 | 3.6 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 100.5 |
| ASE TechnologyOutsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) | T2 | Taiwan | 138 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 4.2 | 49.8 |
| JSR CorpPhotoresist | T2 | Japan | 124 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 4.2 | 49.8 |
| ASMPTSemiconductor assembly/packaging equipment | T2 | Singapore | 104 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 96.0 |
| EntegrisChemical filtration | T2 | USA | 138 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 159.9 |
| Ultra Clean HoldingsSemiconductor equipment subsystems/modules | T3 | USA | 41 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 100.5 |
| Axcelis TechnologiesIon implantation equipment | T3 | USA | 48 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 166.3 |
| HenkelDie-attach adhesives and packaging materials | T3 | Germany | 55 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 251.9 |
Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2
Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for Texas Instruments are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.
Sector peers
Nearest-ranked companies in Semiconductors. Texas Instruments is highlighted.
| Rank | Company | Ticker | Country | Sector | RevenueUSD bn | ESCRCUSD m | ESCRC / Revenue% | Risk Grade | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Qualcomm | QCOM | USA | Semiconductors | 39.0 | 158.6 | 0.407 | SC5 Very High | 0.0% |
| 47 | Intel | INTC | USA | Semiconductors | 54.0 | 57.6 | 0.107 | SC4 High | 0.0% |
| 53 | ASML | ASML | Netherlands | Semiconductors | 30.0 | 48.9 | 0.163 | SC4 High | 0.0% |
| 55 | SK Hynix | 000660.KS | South Korea | Semiconductors | 46.0 | 46.8 | 0.102 | SC4 High | 0.0% |
| 75 | Micron Technology | MU | USA | Semiconductors | 25.0 | 23.3 | 0.093 | SC3 Moderate | 0.0% |
| 82 | Texas Instruments | TXN | USA | Semiconductors | 15.6 | 17.9 | 0.115 | SC4 High | ▼ -0.3% |
See this for your own supply chain
You are looking at Texas Instruments's supply-chain risk capital: $17.9m against $15.6bn of revenue, driven mostly by SUMCO and Japan. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta
- Simulation
- 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
- Seed
- 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
- Input basis
- Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
- Input fingerprint
- 960deed07ac2
- Financials
- Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
- Network
- Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
- Parameters
- lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.
- Fallback
- Some suppliers resolve to an industry bucket with no preset coverage for revenue-at-risk fraction (packaging). This parameter has no external benchmark for any industry in this dataset, so it uses the median across all preset suppliers.
Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.