SciRisk 100 · Semiconductors · Rank 16 of 100
Qualcomm
QCOM · USA · Semiconductors SC5 Very High
What does this ESCRC number mean?
An ESCRC of $158.6m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for Qualcomm under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $194.9m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $25.1m.
Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.
Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile
Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.
By tier
Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.
By supplier geography
Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.
By supplier industry
Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.
| Supplier | Tier | Country | ExposureUSD m | Standalone VaRUSD m | Expected lossUSD m | Tail intensityrevenue-days | RoESCRCx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSMCFoundry wafers | T1 | Taiwan | 5950 | 158.6 | 15.4 | 4.2 | 48.1 |
| ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd.Packaging/test | T1 | Taiwan | 1360 | 36.2 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 48.1 |
| Samsung ElectronicsFoundry wafers | T1 | South Korea | 2040 | 28.3 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 92.6 |
| Amkor TechnologyPackaging/test | T1 | South Korea | 680 | 9.4 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 92.6 |
| UMCAdvanced packaging/interposers | T2 | Taiwan | 340 | 6.9 | 0.5 | 5.4 | 37.8 |
| MurataRF filters/modules | T2 | Japan | 680 | 5.6 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 93.8 |
| GlobalFoundriesFoundry chip manufacturing (US-sourced RF/analog) | T1 | USA | 340 | 4.5 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 97.0 |
| STATS ChipPACPackaging/test | T2 | Singapore | 340 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 92.7 |
| Shin-Etsu ChemicalSilicon wafers | T3 | Japan | 340 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 4.2 | 48.1 |
| TeradyneAutomated test equipment for mobile/infrastructure SoC test | T2 | USA | 340 | 2.7 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 97.0 |
| Kinsus Interconnect TechnologyBT/IC substrates for mobile SoCs | T3 | Taiwan | 170 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 4.2 | 48.1 |
| Tongfu MicroelectronicsOSAT chip assembly and test services | T3 | China | 170 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 92.6 |
| JCET GroupRF front-end module packaging and test (via subsidiary SCK) | T3 | China | 85 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 243.0 |
Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2
Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for Qualcomm are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.
Sector peers
Nearest-ranked companies in Semiconductors. Qualcomm is highlighted.
| Rank | Company | Ticker | Country | Sector | RevenueUSD bn | ESCRCUSD m | ESCRC / Revenue% | Risk Grade | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | NVIDIA | NVDA | USA | Semiconductors | 130.0 | 577.3 | 0.444 | SC5 Very High | 0.0% |
| 9 | Samsung Electronics | 005930.KS | South Korea | Semiconductors | 300.0 | 269.5 | 0.090 | SC3 Moderate | 0.0% |
| 10 | Broadcom | AVGO | USA | Semiconductors | 51.6 | 242.0 | 0.469 | SC5 Very High | 0.0% |
| 13 | TSMC | TSM | Taiwan | Semiconductors | 90.1 | 197.0 | 0.219 | SC4 High | 0.0% |
| 16 | Qualcomm | QCOM | USA | Semiconductors | 39.0 | 158.6 | 0.407 | SC5 Very High | 0.0% |
| 47 | Intel | INTC | USA | Semiconductors | 54.0 | 57.6 | 0.107 | SC4 High | 0.0% |
See this for your own supply chain
You are looking at Qualcomm's supply-chain risk capital: $158.6m against $39.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by TSMC and Taiwan. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta
- Simulation
- 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
- Seed
- 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
- Input basis
- Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
- Input fingerprint
- 322ef839b77b
- Financials
- Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
- Network
- Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
- Parameters
- lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.
- Fallback
- Some suppliers resolve to an industry bucket with no preset coverage for revenue-at-risk fraction (packaging). This parameter has no external benchmark for any industry in this dataset, so it uses the median across all preset suppliers.
Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.