SciRisk 100 · Semiconductors · Rank 47 of 100

Intel

INTC · USA · Semiconductors SC4 High

Economic Supply Chain Risk Capital

$57.6m

95% one-year Value-at-Risk · interval $57.0m to $58.3m (2.2% wide)

Risk Capital Intensity

0.107%

of $54.0bn revenue · rank #31 of 100

Global rank

#47

of 100 by ESCRC

Sector rank

#6

of 10 in Semiconductors

Expected Shortfall

$78.7m

Mean loss beyond ESCRC

Expected annual loss

$15.7m

Ordinary year

Revenue / COGS

54.0 / 35.0

USD bn · gross margin 35%

Suppliers modelled

14

4 correlated geographies

What does this ESCRC number mean?

An ESCRC of $57.6m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for Intel under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $78.7m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $15.7m.

Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.

Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile

Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.

By tier

Tier 1

79%

Tier 2

20%

Tier 3

1%

Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.

By supplier geography

Taiwan

30%

Japan

28%

USA

20%

Netherlands

15%

South Korea

6%

Germany

1%

Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.

By supplier industry

semiconductor

99%

chemicals materials

1%

equipment precision

0%

Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.

Largest supplier share

25%

TSMC

Top-3 concentration

54%

of summed standalone VaR

Tier-1 share of risk

79%

Direct suppliers

Diversification benefit

67.5%

vs. sum of standalone VaR

Supplier	Tier	Country	ExposureUSD m	Standalone VaRUSD m	Expected lossUSD m	Tail intensityrevenue-days	RoESCRCx
TSMCFoundry wafers	T1	Taiwan	2450	43.9	4.2	4.2	30.0
ASMLEUV lithography	T1	Netherlands	2800	26.1	1.7	2.2	57.9
Tokyo ElectronCoaters/developers	T1	Japan	1400	25.1	2.4	4.2	30.0
Applied MaterialsCVD/PVD deposition equipment	T1	USA	2100	18.7	1.3	2.1	60.6
Lam ResearchEtch systems	T1	USA	1750	15.6	1.1	2.1	60.6
Shin-Etsu ChemicalSilicon wafers 300mm	T2	Japan	1050	11.3	1.1	4.2	30.0
SK HynixDRAM/NAND	T1	South Korea	1050	9.8	1.0	2.2	57.9
GlobalWafers300mm silicon wafers	T2	Taiwan	875	9.4	0.9	4.2	30.0
JSR CorpPhotoresist	T2	Japan	700	7.5	0.7	4.2	30.0
AdvantestAutomated test equipment (ATE) for chip test	T2	Japan	525	5.6	0.6	4.2	30.0
EntegrisChemical filtration	T2	USA	525	1.8	0.1	1.3	96.5
ZeissEUV optics	T3	Germany	525	1.5	0.1	2.2	57.9
Linde plcOn-site ultra-high-purity industrial gases (N2/O2/Ar) for Arizona fabs	T3	United Kingdom	350	1.0	0.1	2.2	57.9
KLA CorporationProcess-control instruments	T1	USA	1225	0.0	0.4	—	—

Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2

Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for Intel are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.

Sector peers

Nearest-ranked companies in Semiconductors. Intel is highlighted.

Open in Compare

Rank	Company	Ticker	Country	Sector	RevenueUSD bn	ESCRCUSD m	ESCRC / Revenue%	Risk Grade	Change
13	TSMC	TSM	Taiwan	Semiconductors	90.1	197.0	0.219	SC4 High	0.0%
16	Qualcomm	QCOM	USA	Semiconductors	39.0	158.6	0.407	SC5 Very High	0.0%
47	Intel	INTC	USA	Semiconductors	54.0	57.6	0.107	SC4 High	0.0%
53	ASML	ASML	Netherlands	Semiconductors	30.0	48.9	0.163	SC4 High	0.0%
55	SK Hynix	000660.KS	South Korea	Semiconductors	46.0	46.8	0.102	SC4 High	0.0%
75	Micron Technology	MU	USA	Semiconductors	25.0	23.3	0.093	SC3 Moderate	0.0%

See this for your own supply chain

You are looking at Intel's supply-chain risk capital: $57.6m against $54.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by TSMC and Taiwan. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.

Calculate your ESCRC Load Intel's network Compare with peers

ESCRC calculated using SciRisk ESCRC Model v5.4.2 · calibrated priors 2026.09-5
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta

Simulation: 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
Seed: 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
Input basis: Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
Input fingerprint: 10272c231408

Input provenance for Intel

Financials: Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
Network: Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
Parameters: lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.

SciRisk ESCRC is an analytical estimate generated using the SciRisk Economic Supply Chain Risk Capital methodology. It is not a credit rating, investment recommendation or statement of financial condition. Figures are model-implied and intended for screening and comparison, not as calibrated capital requirements.

Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.