SciRisk 100 · Semiconductors · Rank 53 of 100
ASML
ASML · Netherlands · Semiconductors SC4 High
What does this ESCRC number mean?
An ESCRC of $48.9m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for ASML under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $58.9m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $4.9m.
Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.
Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile
Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.
By tier
Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.
By supplier geography
Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.
By supplier industry
Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.
| Supplier | Tier | Country | ExposureUSD m | Standalone VaRUSD m | Expected lossUSD m | Tail intensityrevenue-days | RoESCRCx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZeissEUV projection optics | T1 | Germany | 3780 | 48.9 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 84.4 |
| TrumpfCO2 drive lasers | T1 | Germany | 840 | 6.3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 146.3 |
| VAT Group AGHigh-vacuum valves and vacuum components for lithography systems | T2 | Switzerland | 210 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 84.4 |
| MKS InstrumentsGas control systems/mass-flow controllers for lithography tools | T2 | USA | 210 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 88.3 |
| Frencken GroupPrecision mechatronic modules, incl. Reticle Masking module for EUV High-NA | T2 | Singapore | 168 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 84.4 |
| Edwards VacuumVacuum/gas-abatement systems for EUV | T2 | United Kingdom | 140 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 84.4 |
| Sioux TechnologiesMechatronics/electronics co-development for EUV subsystems (Reticle Masking module) | T2 | Netherlands | 140 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 84.4 |
| Neways ElectronicsControl units/wiring systems | T2 | Netherlands | 210 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 146.3 |
| Prodrive TechnologiesLinear motors/servo drives for EUV | T3 | Netherlands | 140 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 84.4 |
| Coherent CorpEUV lithography optics: diamond windows, laser modulators and ZnSe optics for EUV light-source beam path | T2 | USA | 70 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 88.3 |
| SchottOptical glass | T3 | Germany | 210 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 140.6 |
| Aalberts N.V.Precision mechatronic components | T3 | Netherlands | 112 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 146.3 |
| NTS GroupPrecision/mechatronic systems and metrology equipment | T3 | Netherlands | 98 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 146.3 |
| VDL GroepPrecision machine frames | T1 | Netherlands | 980 | 0.0 | 0.4 | — | — |
| EntegrisVacuum/filtration components | T2 | USA | 280 | 0.0 | 0.1 | — | — |
Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2
Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for ASML are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.
Sector peers
Nearest-ranked companies in Semiconductors. ASML is highlighted.
| Rank | Company | Ticker | Country | Sector | RevenueUSD bn | ESCRCUSD m | ESCRC / Revenue% | Risk Grade | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Qualcomm | QCOM | USA | Semiconductors | 39.0 | 158.6 | 0.407 | SC5 Very High | 0.0% |
| 47 | Intel | INTC | USA | Semiconductors | 54.0 | 57.6 | 0.107 | SC4 High | 0.0% |
| 53 | ASML | ASML | Netherlands | Semiconductors | 30.0 | 48.9 | 0.163 | SC4 High | 0.0% |
| 55 | SK Hynix | 000660.KS | South Korea | Semiconductors | 46.0 | 46.8 | 0.102 | SC4 High | 0.0% |
| 75 | Micron Technology | MU | USA | Semiconductors | 25.0 | 23.3 | 0.093 | SC3 Moderate | 0.0% |
| 82 | Texas Instruments | TXN | USA | Semiconductors | 15.6 | 17.9 | 0.115 | SC4 High | ▼ -0.3% |
See this for your own supply chain
You are looking at ASML's supply-chain risk capital: $48.9m against $30.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by Zeiss and Germany. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta
- Simulation
- 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
- Seed
- 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
- Input basis
- Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
- Input fingerprint
- 14eb0853be31
- Financials
- Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
- Network
- Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
- Parameters
- lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.
Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.