SciRisk Calculate your ESCRC
As of 2026-06-30| Model v5.4.2| Priors 2026.09-5| Calculated 2026-09-21| 100,000 paths · 95% · 365d| BETA Methodology

SciRisk 100 · Industrial Machinery · Rank 71 of 100

Siemens

SIE.DE · Germany · Industrial Machinery   SC1 Very Low

Economic Supply Chain Risk Capital
$27.0m
95% one-year Value-at-Risk · interval $26.8m to $27.4m (2.1% wide)
Risk Capital Intensity
0.033%
of $82.0bn revenue · rank #88 of 100
Global rank
#71
of 100 by ESCRC
Sector rank
#1
of 7 in Industrial Machinery
Expected Shortfall
$38.6m
Mean loss beyond ESCRC
Expected annual loss
$7.5m
Ordinary year
Revenue / COGS
82.0 / 51.0
USD bn · gross margin 38%
Suppliers modelled
15
4 correlated geographies

What does this ESCRC number mean?

An ESCRC of $27.0m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for Siemens under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $38.6m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $7.5m.

Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.

Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile

Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.

By tier

Tier 1
71%
Tier 2
25%
Tier 3
4%

Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.

By supplier geography

Germany
54%
Switzerland
18%
USA
9%
China
9%
Taiwan
3%
Japan
3%

Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.

By supplier industry

semiconductor
39%
electronics assembly
24%
chemicals materials
13%
raw materials mining
12%
general mfg
11%
equipment precision
0%

Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.

Largest supplier share
28%
Infineon
Top-3 concentration
54%
of summed standalone VaR
Tier-1 share of risk
71%
Direct suppliers
Diversification benefit
69.4%
vs. sum of standalone VaR
SupplierTierCountry ExposureUSD m Standalone VaRUSD m Expected lossUSD m Tail intensityrevenue-days RoESCRCx
InfineonPower semiconductors T1 Germany 2550 24.8 1.6 2.2 62.9
ThyssenKruppSheet steel T1 Germany 2040 11.9 0.8 1.3 104.8
TE ConnectivityConnectors T1 Switzerland 1530 10.8 1.0 1.6 86.2
WielandCopper products T1 Germany 1275 8.6 0.6 1.5 90.6
FoxconnElectronics sub-assembly T2 China 1785 7.6 0.9 1.6 86.1
Texas InstrumentsSemiconductors for Siemens automation and industrial products T1 USA 765 7.1 0.5 2.1 65.8
STMicroelectronicsMicrocontrollers T2 Switzerland 1530 5.1 0.5 1.3 109.0
Delta ElectronicsUPS systems, batteries and thermal-regulation components for prefabricated power modules T2 Taiwan 510 2.9 0.3 2.2 63.6
Renesas ElectronicsMicrocontrollers for Siemens industrial/automation products T2 Japan 510 2.6 0.3 2.0 70.6
AurubisRefined copper T3 Germany 1020 2.1 0.1 1.5 90.6
Vishay IntertechnologyPassive electronic components and discrete semiconductors T2 United States 255 1.4 0.1 2.1 65.8
MersenLiquid-cooling systems and electrical protection components for power-electronics drives T2 France 408 1.4 0.1 1.3 108.9
NexperiaDiscrete and small-signal semiconductors for industrial control products T3 Netherlands 408 1.2 0.1 2.2 62.9
Kimball ElectronicsContract electronics manufacturing (Siemens Healthineers devices) T2 USA 255 0.9 0.1 1.3 108.9
SchaefflerBearings/precision machine parts T1 Germany 1785 0.0 0.5

Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2

Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for Siemens are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.

Sector peers

Nearest-ranked companies in Industrial Machinery. Siemens is highlighted.

Open in Compare
RankCompanyTickerCountrySectorRevenueUSD bnESCRCUSD mESCRC / Revenue%Risk GradeChange
71 Siemens SIE.DE Germany Industrial Machinery 82.0 27.0 0.033 SC1 Very Low 0.0%
76 Caterpillar CAT USA Industrial Machinery 65.0 21.1 0.033 SC1 Very Low ▲ +1.4%
78 Deere & Company DE USA Industrial Machinery 51.0 19.7 0.039 SC1 Very Low ▲ +1.8%
84 Komatsu 6301.T Japan Industrial Machinery 25.0 15.9 0.064 SC3 Moderate 0.0%
86 Schneider Electric SU.PA France Industrial Machinery 40.0 15.0 0.038 SC1 Very Low 0.0%
88 Honeywell International HON USA Industrial Machinery 38.0 14.2 0.037 SC1 Very Low ▲ +12.0%

See this for your own supply chain

You are looking at Siemens's supply-chain risk capital: $27.0m against $82.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by Infineon and Germany. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.

ESCRC calculated using SciRisk ESCRC Model v5.4.2 · calibrated priors 2026.09-5
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta
Simulation
100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
Seed
20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
Input basis
Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
Input fingerprint
921603543092
Input provenance for Siemens
Financials
Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
Network
Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
Parameters
lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.
SciRisk ESCRC is an analytical estimate generated using the SciRisk Economic Supply Chain Risk Capital methodology. It is not a credit rating, investment recommendation or statement of financial condition. Figures are model-implied and intended for screening and comparison, not as calibrated capital requirements.

Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.