SciRisk 100 · Industrial Machinery · Rank 78 of 100
Deere & Company
DE · USA · Industrial Machinery SC1 Very Low
What does this ESCRC number mean?
An ESCRC of $19.7m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for Deere & Company under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $26.3m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $5.6m.
Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.
Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile
Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.
By tier
Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.
By supplier geography
Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.
By supplier industry
Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.
| Supplier | Tier | Country | ExposureUSD m | Standalone VaRUSD m | Expected lossUSD m | Tail intensityrevenue-days | RoESCRCx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoschFuel injection/electronics | T1 | Germany | 1750 | 12.9 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 63.2 |
| CumminsEngines | T1 | USA | 1925 | 9.8 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 91.7 |
| NucorSteel plate | T1 | USA | 1750 | 9.2 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 88.2 |
| Parker HannifinHydraulic systems | T1 | USA | 1575 | 8.0 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 91.7 |
| NTN CorporationBearings for agricultural/construction equipment | T1 | Japan | 350 | 6.8 | 0.6 | 4.9 | 23.9 |
| MichelinAgricultural tyres | T1 | France | 875 | 6.4 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 63.2 |
| DanfossHydraulic systems | T1 | Denmark | 1225 | 6.2 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 91.7 |
| ArcelorMittalAlloy steel | T2 | Luxembourg | 1050 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 88.2 |
| TimkenBearings | T2 | USA | 1050 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 91.7 |
| Rio TintoIron ore | T3 | United Kingdom | 630 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 76.3 |
Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2
Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for Deere & Company are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.
Sector peers
Nearest-ranked companies in Industrial Machinery. Deere & Company is highlighted.
| Rank | Company | Ticker | Country | Sector | RevenueUSD bn | ESCRCUSD m | ESCRC / Revenue% | Risk Grade | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | Siemens | SIE.DE | Germany | Industrial Machinery | 82.0 | 27.0 | 0.033 | SC1 Very Low | 0.0% |
| 76 | Caterpillar | CAT | USA | Industrial Machinery | 65.0 | 21.1 | 0.033 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +1.4% |
| 78 | Deere & Company | DE | USA | Industrial Machinery | 51.0 | 19.7 | 0.039 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +1.8% |
| 84 | Komatsu | 6301.T | Japan | Industrial Machinery | 25.0 | 15.9 | 0.064 | SC3 Moderate | 0.0% |
| 86 | Schneider Electric | SU.PA | France | Industrial Machinery | 40.0 | 15.0 | 0.038 | SC1 Very Low | 0.0% |
| 88 | Honeywell International | HON | USA | Industrial Machinery | 38.0 | 14.2 | 0.037 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +12.0% |
See this for your own supply chain
You are looking at Deere & Company's supply-chain risk capital: $19.7m against $51.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by Bosch and USA. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-22 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta
- Simulation
- 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
- Seed
- 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
- Input basis
- Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
- Input fingerprint
- 2a0ceda976e0
- Financials
- Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
- Network
- Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
- Parameters
- lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-6 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.
- Fallback
- Some suppliers resolve to an industry bucket with no preset coverage for revenue-at-risk fraction (food agri). This parameter has no external benchmark for any industry in this dataset, so it uses the median across all preset suppliers.
Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.