SciRisk 100 · Industrial Machinery · Rank 88 of 100
Honeywell International
HON · USA · Industrial Machinery SC1 Very Low
What does this ESCRC number mean?
An ESCRC of $14.2m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for Honeywell International under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $28.4m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $3.9m.
Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.
Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile
Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.
By tier
Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.
By supplier geography
Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.
By supplier industry
Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.
| Supplier | Tier | Country | ExposureUSD m | Standalone VaRUSD m | Expected lossUSD m | Tail intensityrevenue-days | RoESCRCx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Howmet AerospaceAerospace castings | T1 | USA | 840 | 9.2 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 54.9 |
| JabilEMS assembly | T1 | USA | 1080 | 7.5 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 86.2 |
| TE ConnectivityConnectors/sensors | T1 | Switzerland | 960 | 6.7 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 86.2 |
| NucorSteel plate | T1 | USA | 720 | 4.1 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 104.8 |
| Parker HannifinFluid systems | T1 | USA | 720 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 108.9 |
| Texas InstrumentsAnalog chips | T2 | USA | 720 | 3.9 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 65.8 |
| FoxconnElectronics sub-assembly | T2 | China | 720 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 86.1 |
| AurubisRefined copper | T3 | Germany | 360 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 90.6 |
| Spirit ElectronicsHigh-reliability semiconductor testing/OSAT | T3 | USA | 48 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 65.8 |
| Timken CompanyCompressor/turbine blades, vanes, shrouds, nozzles and gears for Honeywell APU engines (via 2008 Extex acquisition) | T1 | United States | 144 | 0.0 | 0.1 | — | — |
Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2
Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for Honeywell International are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.
Sector peers
Nearest-ranked companies in Industrial Machinery. Honeywell International is highlighted.
| Rank | Company | Ticker | Country | Sector | RevenueUSD bn | ESCRCUSD m | ESCRC / Revenue% | Risk Grade | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | Caterpillar | CAT | USA | Industrial Machinery | 65.0 | 21.1 | 0.033 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +1.4% |
| 78 | Deere & Company | DE | USA | Industrial Machinery | 51.0 | 19.7 | 0.039 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +1.8% |
| 84 | Komatsu | 6301.T | Japan | Industrial Machinery | 25.0 | 15.9 | 0.064 | SC3 Moderate | 0.0% |
| 86 | Schneider Electric | SU.PA | France | Industrial Machinery | 40.0 | 15.0 | 0.038 | SC1 Very Low | 0.0% |
| 88 | Honeywell International | HON | USA | Industrial Machinery | 38.0 | 14.2 | 0.037 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +12.0% |
| 92 | ABB | ABBN.SW | Switzerland | Industrial Machinery | 32.0 | 11.2 | 0.035 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +0.5% |
See this for your own supply chain
You are looking at Honeywell International's supply-chain risk capital: $14.2m against $38.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by Howmet Aerospace and USA. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta
- Simulation
- 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
- Seed
- 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
- Input basis
- Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
- Input fingerprint
- b7a61aa4950a
- Financials
- Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
- Network
- Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
- Parameters
- lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.
- Fallback
- Some suppliers resolve to an industry bucket with no preset coverage for revenue-at-risk fraction (aerospace defense, energy equipment). This parameter has no external benchmark for any industry in this dataset, so it uses the median across all preset suppliers.
Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.