SciRisk 100 · Industrial Machinery · Rank 92 of 100
ABB
ABBN.SW · Switzerland · Industrial Machinery SC1 Very Low
What does this ESCRC number mean?
An ESCRC of $11.2m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for ABB under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $16.0m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $2.9m.
Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.
Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile
Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.
By tier
Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.
By supplier geography
Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.
By supplier industry
Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.
| Supplier | Tier | Country | ExposureUSD m | Standalone VaRUSD m | Expected lossUSD m | Tail intensityrevenue-days | RoESCRCx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| InfineonPower semiconductors | T1 | Germany | 1155 | 10.6 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 57.9 |
| WielandCopper windings | T1 | Germany | 945 | 6.0 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 83.4 |
| ThyssenKruppElectrical steel | T1 | Germany | 840 | 4.6 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 96.5 |
| TE ConnectivityConnectors | T1 | Switzerland | 630 | 4.2 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 79.4 |
| SchaefflerBearings | T1 | Germany | 630 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 100.3 |
| FoxconnElectronics sub-assembly | T2 | China | 630 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 79.3 |
| STMicroelectronicsMicrocontrollers | T2 | Switzerland | 630 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 100.3 |
| Hitachi EnergyIGBT power modules (traction) | T2 | Switzerland | 315 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 79.4 |
| AurubisRefined copper | T3 | Germany | 525 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 83.4 |
| WolfspeedSilicon-carbide power semiconductor devices | T2 | USA | 168 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 60.6 |
| NexperiaDiscrete and small-signal semiconductors for industrial control products | T3 | Netherlands | 168 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 57.9 |
| Tamagawa SeikiServo motor encoders/resolvers for robotics | T3 | Japan | 105 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 65.0 |
Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2
Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for ABB are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.
Sector peers
Nearest-ranked companies in Industrial Machinery. ABB is highlighted.
| Rank | Company | Ticker | Country | Sector | RevenueUSD bn | ESCRCUSD m | ESCRC / Revenue% | Risk Grade | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | Caterpillar | CAT | USA | Industrial Machinery | 65.0 | 21.1 | 0.033 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +1.4% |
| 78 | Deere & Company | DE | USA | Industrial Machinery | 51.0 | 19.7 | 0.039 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +1.8% |
| 84 | Komatsu | 6301.T | Japan | Industrial Machinery | 25.0 | 15.9 | 0.064 | SC3 Moderate | 0.0% |
| 86 | Schneider Electric | SU.PA | France | Industrial Machinery | 40.0 | 15.0 | 0.038 | SC1 Very Low | 0.0% |
| 88 | Honeywell International | HON | USA | Industrial Machinery | 38.0 | 14.2 | 0.037 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +12.0% |
| 92 | ABB | ABBN.SW | Switzerland | Industrial Machinery | 32.0 | 11.2 | 0.035 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +0.5% |
See this for your own supply chain
You are looking at ABB's supply-chain risk capital: $11.2m against $32.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by Infineon and Germany. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta
- Simulation
- 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
- Seed
- 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
- Input basis
- Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
- Input fingerprint
- f034a0004e58
- Financials
- Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
- Network
- Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
- Parameters
- lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.
Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.