SciRisk 100 · Industrial Machinery · Rank 84 of 100
Komatsu
6301.T · Japan · Industrial Machinery SC3 Moderate
What does this ESCRC number mean?
An ESCRC of $15.9m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for Komatsu under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $22.3m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $4.6m.
Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.
Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile
Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.
By tier
Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.
By supplier geography
Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.
By supplier industry
Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.
| Supplier | Tier | Country | ExposureUSD m | Standalone VaRUSD m | Expected lossUSD m | Tail intensityrevenue-days | RoESCRCx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nippon SteelSteel plate | T1 | Japan | 1020 | 8.1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 57.6 |
| KYB CorporationHydraulic components | T1 | Japan | 850 | 6.7 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 57.6 |
| DensoEngine electronics | T1 | Japan | 765 | 6.0 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 57.6 |
| BridgestoneOff-road tyres | T1 | Japan | 425 | 5.6 | 0.6 | 3.3 | 34.4 |
| CumminsEngines | T1 | USA | 765 | 3.9 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 88.9 |
| Nabtesco CorporationHydraulic final drives and travel motors for excavators | T1 | Japan | 340 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 57.6 |
| NSKBearings | T2 | Japan | 510 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 57.6 |
| JFE SteelAlloy steel | T2 | Japan | 510 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 57.6 |
| Yanmar HoldingsDiesel engines for compact construction equipment | T1 | Japan | 255 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 57.6 |
| Topy Industries, Ltd.Undercarriage components (track shoes, rollers) | T1 | Japan | 255 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 57.6 |
| Rio TintoIron ore | T3 | United Kingdom | 306 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 73.9 |
| NTN CorporationBearings for hydraulic excavators, wheel loaders, cranes | T2 | Japan | 119 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 57.6 |
| RBC Bearings IncorporatedPrecision bearings for excavators/loaders | T2 | United States | 102 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 88.9 |
| Shell plc (Shell Lubricants)Diesel engine oils and lubricants | T3 | United Kingdom/Netherlands | 68 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 88.9 |
| Würth Group (Würth Service Supply)Fasteners and MRO/inventory supply | T3 | Germany | 51 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 88.9 |
Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2
Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for Komatsu are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.
Sector peers
Nearest-ranked companies in Industrial Machinery. Komatsu is highlighted.
| Rank | Company | Ticker | Country | Sector | RevenueUSD bn | ESCRCUSD m | ESCRC / Revenue% | Risk Grade | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | Caterpillar | CAT | USA | Industrial Machinery | 65.0 | 21.1 | 0.033 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +1.4% |
| 78 | Deere & Company | DE | USA | Industrial Machinery | 51.0 | 19.7 | 0.039 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +1.8% |
| 84 | Komatsu | 6301.T | Japan | Industrial Machinery | 25.0 | 15.9 | 0.064 | SC3 Moderate | 0.0% |
| 86 | Schneider Electric | SU.PA | France | Industrial Machinery | 40.0 | 15.0 | 0.038 | SC1 Very Low | 0.0% |
| 88 | Honeywell International | HON | USA | Industrial Machinery | 38.0 | 14.2 | 0.037 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +12.0% |
| 92 | ABB | ABBN.SW | Switzerland | Industrial Machinery | 32.0 | 11.2 | 0.035 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +0.5% |
See this for your own supply chain
You are looking at Komatsu's supply-chain risk capital: $15.9m against $25.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by Nippon Steel and Japan. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta
- Simulation
- 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
- Seed
- 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
- Input basis
- Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
- Input fingerprint
- 9be3e06b77f6
- Financials
- Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
- Network
- Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
- Parameters
- lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.
Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.