SciRisk 100 · Consumer Goods · Rank 59 of 100
Unilever
ULVR.L · United Kingdom · Consumer Goods SC3 Moderate
What does this ESCRC number mean?
An ESCRC of $43.3m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for Unilever under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $64.7m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $10.4m.
Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.
Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile
Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.
By tier
Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.
By supplier geography
Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.
By supplier industry
Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.
| Supplier | Tier | Country | ExposureUSD m | Standalone VaRUSD m | Expected lossUSD m | Tail intensityrevenue-days | RoESCRCx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilmar InternationalPalm oil/oleochemicals | T1 | Singapore | 3040 | 26.5 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 82.3 |
| CargillAgricultural ingredients | T1 | USA | 1900 | 16.6 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 82.3 |
| BASFSurfactant chemicals | T1 | Germany | 1710 | 10.6 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 115.8 |
| Golden Agri-ResourcesCrude palm oil | T2 | Indonesia | 1710 | 8.9 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 82.2 |
| Ardagh GroupGlass/metal packaging | T1 | Luxembourg | 1330 | 8.2 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 115.8 |
| AmcorFlexible packaging | T1 | Switzerland | 2090 | 8.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 182.4 |
| AmcorPlastic components | T1 | Switzerland | 1140 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 182.4 |
| SinopecPetrochemical intermediates | T2 | China | 950 | 3.5 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 115.8 |
| GivaudanFlavors and fragrances | T1 | Switzerland | 570 | 3.4 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 120.4 |
| DSM-FirmenichFragrance ingredients | T1 | Switzerland | 380 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 120.4 |
| SymriseFragrance ingredients | T2 | Germany | 304 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 120.4 |
| SuzanoPulp | T3 | Brazil | 570 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 120.4 |
| Musim MasPalm oil (upstream grower/miller) | T3 | Singapore | 190 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 82.3 |
| Sime Darby PlantationPalm oil (upstream grower/miller) | T3 | Malaysia | 190 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 82.2 |
| IOI CorporationPalm oil (upstream grower/miller) | T3 | Malaysia | 190 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 82.2 |
Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2
Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for Unilever are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.
Sector peers
Nearest-ranked companies in Consumer Goods. Unilever is highlighted.
| Rank | Company | Ticker | Country | Sector | RevenueUSD bn | ESCRCUSD m | ESCRC / Revenue% | Risk Grade | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | Nike | NKE | USA | Consumer Goods | 51.0 | 63.2 | 0.124 | SC4 High | ▲ +4.0% |
| 59 | Unilever | ULVR.L | United Kingdom | Consumer Goods | 65.0 | 43.3 | 0.067 | SC3 Moderate | ▲ +28.5% |
| 61 | Procter & Gamble | PG | USA | Consumer Goods | 84.0 | 37.3 | 0.044 | SC1 Very Low | ▼ -9.7% |
| 65 | Inditex | ITX.MC | Spain | Consumer Goods | 39.0 | 30.8 | 0.079 | SC3 Moderate | ▲ +29.4% |
| 72 | adidas | ADS.DE | Germany | Consumer Goods | 24.0 | 26.2 | 0.109 | SC4 High | ▲ +6.3% |
| 83 | L'Oréal | OR.PA | France | Consumer Goods | 45.0 | 16.9 | 0.038 | SC1 Very Low | ▼ -5.8% |
See this for your own supply chain
You are looking at Unilever's supply-chain risk capital: $43.3m against $65.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by Wilmar International and Singapore. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta
- Simulation
- 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
- Seed
- 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
- Input basis
- Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
- Input fingerprint
- b1264f2ae7d9
- Financials
- Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
- Network
- Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
- Parameters
- lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.
- Fallback
- Some suppliers resolve to an industry bucket with no preset coverage for revenue-at-risk fraction (food agri, packaging). This parameter has no external benchmark for any industry in this dataset, so it uses the median across all preset suppliers.
Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.