SciRisk 100 · Consumer Goods · Rank 83 of 100

L'Oréal

OR.PA · France · Consumer Goods SC1 Very Low

Economic Supply Chain Risk Capital

$16.9m

95% one-year Value-at-Risk · interval $16.6m to $16.9m (1.8% wide)

Risk Capital Intensity

0.038%

of $45.0bn revenue · rank #79 of 100

Global rank

#83

of 100 by ESCRC

Sector rank

#6

of 8 in Consumer Goods

Expected Shortfall

$28.2m

Mean loss beyond ESCRC

Expected annual loss

$4.2m

Ordinary year

Revenue / COGS

45.0 / 12.0

USD bn · gross margin 74%

Suppliers modelled

9

3 correlated geographies

What does this ESCRC number mean?

An ESCRC of $16.9m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for L'Oréal under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $28.2m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $4.2m.

Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.

Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile

Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.

By tier

Tier 1

83%

Tier 2

15%

Tier 3

2%

Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.

By supplier geography

Germany

34%

Switzerland

32%

United Kingdom

13%

France

13%

Singapore

7%

USA

2%

Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.

By supplier industry

general mfg

40%

chemicals materials

35%

packaging

25%

Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.

Largest supplier share

27%

BASF

Top-3 concentration

60%

of summed standalone VaR

Tier-1 share of risk

83%

Direct suppliers

Diversification benefit

60.3%

vs. sum of standalone VaR

Supplier	Tier	Country	ExposureUSD m	Standalone VaRUSD m	Expected lossUSD m	Tail intensityrevenue-days	RoESCRCx
BASFCosmetic chemical ingredients	T1	Germany	840	11.4	0.8	1.3	204.1
GivaudanFragrance compounds	T1	Switzerland	660	8.6	0.8	1.3	212.3
Croda InternationalSpecialty surfactants	T1	United Kingdom	420	5.5	0.5	1.3	212.3
AmcorCosmetic packaging	T1	Switzerland	600	5.2	0.7	0.8	321.4
AlbéaTubes/dispensing packaging	T1	France	540	4.7	0.7	0.8	321.4
Evonik Industries AGChemical intermediates	T2	Germany	360	2.9	0.2	1.3	204.1
Wilmar InternationalPalm-derived oleochemicals	T2	Singapore	360	2.8	0.3	1.3	212.2
AptarGroupPump and dispensing packaging components for L'Oréal Luxe fragrance/cosmetics brands	T2	USA	144	0.7	0.1	0.8	321.4
VeralliaGlass containers	T3	France	180	0.7	0.1	1.3	204.1

Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2

Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for L'Oréal are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.

Sector peers

Nearest-ranked companies in Consumer Goods. L'Oréal is highlighted.

Open in Compare

Rank	Company	Ticker	Country	Sector	RevenueUSD bn	ESCRCUSD m	ESCRC / Revenue%	Risk Grade	Change
61	Procter & Gamble	PG	USA	Consumer Goods	84.0	37.3	0.044	SC1 Very Low	▼ -9.7%
65	Inditex	ITX.MC	Spain	Consumer Goods	39.0	30.8	0.079	SC3 Moderate	▲ +29.4%
72	adidas	ADS.DE	Germany	Consumer Goods	24.0	26.2	0.109	SC4 High	▲ +6.3%
83	L'Oréal	OR.PA	France	Consumer Goods	45.0	16.9	0.038	SC1 Very Low	▼ -5.8%
85	LVMH	MC.PA	France	Consumer Goods	92.0	15.2	0.017	SC1 Very Low	▼ -6.8%
95	Colgate-Palmolive	CL	USA	Consumer Goods	20.0	8.6	0.043	SC1 Very Low	▼ -4.9%

See this for your own supply chain

You are looking at L'Oréal's supply-chain risk capital: $16.9m against $45.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by BASF and Germany. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.

Calculate your ESCRC Load L'Oréal's network Compare with peers

ESCRC calculated using SciRisk ESCRC Model v5.4.2 · calibrated priors 2026.09-5
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta

Simulation: 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
Seed: 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
Input basis: Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
Input fingerprint: 59fb9ec1c54d

Input provenance for L'Oréal

Financials: Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
Network: Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
Parameters: lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.
Fallback: Some suppliers resolve to an industry bucket with no preset coverage for revenue-at-risk fraction (packaging). This parameter has no external benchmark for any industry in this dataset, so it uses the median across all preset suppliers.

SciRisk ESCRC is an analytical estimate generated using the SciRisk Economic Supply Chain Risk Capital methodology. It is not a credit rating, investment recommendation or statement of financial condition. Figures are model-implied and intended for screening and comparison, not as calibrated capital requirements.

Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.