SciRisk 100 · Consumer Goods · Rank 85 of 100
LVMH
MC.PA · France · Consumer Goods SC1 Very Low
What does this ESCRC number mean?
An ESCRC of $15.2m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for LVMH under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $31.5m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $4.0m.
Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.
Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile
Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.
By tier
Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.
By supplier geography
Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.
By supplier industry
Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.
| Supplier | Tier | Country | ExposureUSD m | Standalone VaRUSD m | Expected lossUSD m | Tail intensityrevenue-days | RoESCRCx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RobansLeather/suede hides | T1 | Italy | 1500 | 10.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 291.0 |
| AmcorPremium packaging | T1 | Switzerland | 900 | 6.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 291.0 |
| VeralliaGlass bottles | T2 | France | 900 | 6.0 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 184.8 |
| Mantero SetaSilk fabrics for Dior ready-to-wear/accessories | T1 | Italy | 600 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 291.0 |
| GlencoreGold/precious metal refining | T3 | Switzerland | 450 | 3.0 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 92.6 |
| ChargeursPremium wool fiber/textile linings | T2 | France | 450 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 291.0 |
| Burgundy Diamond MinesRough/fancy-colored diamonds (Ekati mine) for Tiffany & Co. | T1 | Australia | 150 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 192.2 |
| Groupe PochetLuxury glass perfume/cosmetics bottles | T2 | France | 240 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 184.8 |
| Guala ClosuresBottle closures/caps (SAVIN PREMIUM) for Moet Hennessy wines and spirits | T2 | Italy | 240 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 291.0 |
Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2
Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for LVMH are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.
Sector peers
Nearest-ranked companies in Consumer Goods. LVMH is highlighted.
| Rank | Company | Ticker | Country | Sector | RevenueUSD bn | ESCRCUSD m | ESCRC / Revenue% | Risk Grade | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | Procter & Gamble | PG | USA | Consumer Goods | 84.0 | 37.3 | 0.044 | SC1 Very Low | ▼ -9.7% |
| 65 | Inditex | ITX.MC | Spain | Consumer Goods | 39.0 | 30.8 | 0.079 | SC3 Moderate | ▲ +29.4% |
| 72 | adidas | ADS.DE | Germany | Consumer Goods | 24.0 | 26.2 | 0.109 | SC4 High | ▲ +6.3% |
| 83 | L'Oréal | OR.PA | France | Consumer Goods | 45.0 | 16.9 | 0.038 | SC1 Very Low | ▼ -5.8% |
| 85 | LVMH | MC.PA | France | Consumer Goods | 92.0 | 15.2 | 0.017 | SC1 Very Low | ▼ -6.8% |
| 95 | Colgate-Palmolive | CL | USA | Consumer Goods | 20.0 | 8.6 | 0.043 | SC1 Very Low | ▼ -4.9% |
See this for your own supply chain
You are looking at LVMH's supply-chain risk capital: $15.2m against $92.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by Robans and Italy. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta
- Simulation
- 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
- Seed
- 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
- Input basis
- Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
- Input fingerprint
- 3426338d2448
- Financials
- Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
- Network
- Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
- Parameters
- lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.
- Fallback
- Some suppliers resolve to an industry bucket with no coverage in the shipped preset networks (metals materials inputs). Their recovery times use the median across all preset suppliers rather than a bucket-specific or externally-cited one.
- Fallback
- Some suppliers resolve to an industry bucket with no preset coverage for revenue-at-risk fraction (apparel textiles, packaging, metals materials inputs). This parameter has no external benchmark for any industry in this dataset, so it uses the median across all preset suppliers.
Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.