SciRisk 100 · Aerospace & Defence · Rank 74 of 100
Safran
SAF.PA · France · Aerospace & Defence SC3 Moderate
What does this ESCRC number mean?
An ESCRC of $23.8m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for Safran under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $51.9m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $5.5m.
Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.
Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile
Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.
By tier
Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.
By supplier geography
Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.
By supplier industry
Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.
| Supplier | Tier | Country | ExposureUSD m | Standalone VaRUSD m | Expected lossUSD m | Tail intensityrevenue-days | RoESCRCx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Howmet AerospaceTurbine castings | T1 | USA | 1840 | 16.6 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 33.2 |
| GE AerospaceEngine core modules | T1 | USA | 2070 | 11.9 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 52.1 |
| Liebherr AerospaceLanding-gear systems | T1 | France | 805 | 7.2 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 33.2 |
| HexcelCarbon fiber/composite materials | T1 | USA | 575 | 5.2 | 0.6 | 2.5 | 33.2 |
| Parker HannifinFluid systems | T1 | USA | 690 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 65.9 |
| ATINickel superalloy | T2 | USA | 920 | 3.0 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 54.8 |
| ThalesEngine control units (ECU/EECU) | T2 | France | 345 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 33.2 |
| Carpenter TechnologySpecialty alloy | T2 | USA | 575 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 63.4 |
| Titanium Metals CorporationTitanium ingot | T3 | USA | 276 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 33.2 |
| Aerolloy TechnologiesTitanium and nickel-superalloy castings for CFM LEAP-1A/1B engines | T3 | India | 138 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 54.8 |
Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2
Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for Safran are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.
Sector peers
Nearest-ranked companies in Aerospace & Defence. Safran is highlighted.
| Rank | Company | Ticker | Country | Sector | RevenueUSD bn | ESCRCUSD m | ESCRC / Revenue% | Risk Grade | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Airbus | AIR.PA | France | Aerospace & Defence | 70.0 | 96.7 | 0.138 | SC4 High | ▲ +121.2% |
| 38 | Lockheed Martin | LMT | USA | Aerospace & Defence | 71.0 | 74.4 | 0.105 | SC4 High | ▲ +136.1% |
| 52 | RTX | RTX | USA | Aerospace & Defence | 80.0 | 49.0 | 0.061 | SC3 Moderate | ▲ +40.8% |
| 66 | GE Aerospace | GE | USA | Aerospace & Defence | 38.0 | 28.9 | 0.076 | SC3 Moderate | ▲ +24.6% |
| 74 | Safran | SAF.PA | France | Aerospace & Defence | 30.0 | 23.8 | 0.079 | SC3 Moderate | ▲ +59.7% |
| 90 | Rolls-Royce Holdings | RR.L | United Kingdom | Aerospace & Defence | 22.0 | 13.4 | 0.061 | SC3 Moderate | ▲ +42.6% |
See this for your own supply chain
You are looking at Safran's supply-chain risk capital: $23.8m against $30.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by Howmet Aerospace and USA. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta
- Simulation
- 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
- Seed
- 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
- Input basis
- Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
- Input fingerprint
- 54d25f677a19
- Financials
- Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
- Network
- Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
- Parameters
- lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.
- Fallback
- Some suppliers resolve to an industry bucket with no preset coverage for revenue-at-risk fraction (aerospace defense). This parameter has no external benchmark for any industry in this dataset, so it uses the median across all preset suppliers.
Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.