SciRisk 100 · Aerospace & Defence · Rank 38 of 100
Lockheed Martin
LMT · USA · Aerospace & Defence SC4 High
What does this ESCRC number mean?
An ESCRC of $74.4m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for Lockheed Martin under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $127.7m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $15.7m.
Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.
Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile
Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.
By tier
Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.
By supplier geography
Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.
By supplier industry
Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.
| Supplier | Tier | Country | ExposureUSD m | Standalone VaRUSD m | Expected lossUSD m | Tail intensityrevenue-days | RoESCRCx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northrop GrummanFuselage/radar systems | T1 | USA | 3780 | 29.4 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 15.8 |
| Toray IndustriesCarbon-fibre composite | T2 | Japan | 1575 | 29.3 | 3.0 | 10.0 | 3.9 |
| BAE SystemsElectronic warfare systems | T1 | United Kingdom | 2835 | 22.1 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 15.8 |
| RTXEngines/missile systems | T1 | USA | 5040 | 19.8 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 31.5 |
| HoneywellAvionics/APUs | T1 | USA | 2205 | 17.2 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 15.8 |
| Howmet AerospaceStructural castings | T1 | USA | 1890 | 14.7 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 15.8 |
| L3HarrisCommunications systems | T1 | USA | 1890 | 7.4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 31.5 |
| ATITitanium alloy | T2 | USA | 2205 | 5.4 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 30.3 |
| QorvoGallium nitride (GaN) RF power-amplifier modules for radar systems | T2 | USA | 378 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 24.9 |
| MP MaterialsRare earth magnets | T3 | USA | 630 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 26.2 |
Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2
Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for Lockheed Martin are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.
Sector peers
Nearest-ranked companies in Aerospace & Defence. Lockheed Martin is highlighted.
| Rank | Company | Ticker | Country | Sector | RevenueUSD bn | ESCRCUSD m | ESCRC / Revenue% | Risk Grade | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Boeing | BA | USA | Aerospace & Defence | 78.0 | 130.2 | 0.167 | SC4 High | ▲ +150.3% |
| 30 | Airbus | AIR.PA | France | Aerospace & Defence | 70.0 | 96.7 | 0.138 | SC4 High | ▲ +121.2% |
| 38 | Lockheed Martin | LMT | USA | Aerospace & Defence | 71.0 | 74.4 | 0.105 | SC4 High | ▲ +136.1% |
| 52 | RTX | RTX | USA | Aerospace & Defence | 80.0 | 49.0 | 0.061 | SC3 Moderate | ▲ +40.8% |
| 66 | GE Aerospace | GE | USA | Aerospace & Defence | 38.0 | 28.9 | 0.076 | SC3 Moderate | ▲ +24.6% |
| 74 | Safran | SAF.PA | France | Aerospace & Defence | 30.0 | 23.8 | 0.079 | SC3 Moderate | ▲ +59.7% |
See this for your own supply chain
You are looking at Lockheed Martin's supply-chain risk capital: $74.4m against $71.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by Northrop Grumman and USA. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta
- Simulation
- 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
- Seed
- 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
- Input basis
- Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
- Input fingerprint
- df3e0f4d6e3f
- Financials
- Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
- Network
- Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
- Parameters
- lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.
- Fallback
- Some suppliers resolve to an industry bucket with no preset coverage for revenue-at-risk fraction (aerospace defense). This parameter has no external benchmark for any industry in this dataset, so it uses the median across all preset suppliers.
Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.