SciRisk 100 · Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology · Rank 6 of 100
Pfizer
PFE · USA · Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology SC5 Very High
What does this ESCRC number mean?
An ESCRC of $284.9m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for Pfizer under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $385.7m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $67.8m.
Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.
Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile
Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.
By tier
Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.
By supplier geography
Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.
By supplier industry
Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.
| Supplier | Tier | Country | ExposureUSD m | Standalone VaRUSD m | Expected lossUSD m | Tail intensityrevenue-days | RoESCRCx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lonza GroupAPI & biologics CMO | T1 | Switzerland | 3500 | 171.6 | 26.8 | 4.3 | 63.2 |
| SiegfriedFill/finish CMO (Siegfried) | T1 | Switzerland | 2800 | 137.3 | 21.8 | 4.3 | 63.2 |
| Samsung BiologicsBiologics CMO | T1 | South Korea | 900 | 35.5 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 78.5 |
| Corning LSGlass vials | T1 | USA | 800 | 30.5 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 81.3 |
| West PharmaStoppers/closures | T1 | USA | 600 | 22.7 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 82.0 |
| WuXi BioAPI/CMO | T2 | China | 500 | 11.8 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 78.5 |
| Evonik Industries AGLipid nanoparticles | T2 | Germany | 400 | 11.8 | 1.9 | 4.3 | 63.2 |
| Merck KGaACell culture media | T2 | Germany | 300 | 8.8 | 1.4 | 4.3 | 63.2 |
| SartoriusBioprocess equip | T3 | Germany | 200 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 4.3 | 63.2 |
| AvantorLab chemicals | T2 | USA | 200 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 206.8 |
| Croda IntlPEG lipids/excipients | T3 | UK | 120 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 4.3 | 63.2 |
| BASFChemical intermediates | T3 | Germany | 150 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 206.8 |
| Thermo FisherRaw materials/lab | T1 | USA | 1200 | 0.0 | 1.0 | — | — |
| Agilent TechnologiesAnalytical lab instruments | T2 | USA | 150 | 0.0 | 0.1 | — | — |
The calculator ships a researched network for Pfizer
This index entry uses calibrated bucket defaults for every supplier's disruption rate, recovery time and revenue-at-risk fraction — the uniform rule applied to all 100 companies — and prices severity pro-rata, by each supplier's share of cost. The ESCRC Calculator ships a researched network for this company ("Pfizer"): supplier-specific parameters, priced instead by each supplier's declared criticality — the share of output that halts when it stops. Same engine, same seed, same settings, but two layers differ, the parameters and the severity formula:
- SciRisk 100 entry (bucket defaults, pro-rata)
- $284.9m · 0.491% of revenue
- Calculator preset (researched, criticality)
- $1.45bn · 2.505% of revenue
- Ratio
- 5.10x
This difference is not a measure of what supplier-level research is worth: it compounds two separate changes, and the formula change is generally the larger of the two. Pro-rata pricing bounds a supplier's loss by its share of cost, so it understates a concentrated, low-spend bottleneck by construction; criticality pricing does not, and rests on declared criticality and unrecoverability values that are operator judgment rather than model outputs. The two figures answer different questions, and neither is used to adjust the other. It is why index figures are labelled preliminary.
Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2
Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for Pfizer are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.
Sector peers
Nearest-ranked companies in Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology. Pfizer is highlighted.
| Rank | Company | Ticker | Country | Sector | RevenueUSD bn | ESCRCUSD m | ESCRC / Revenue% | Risk Grade | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pfizer | PFE | USA | Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology | 58.0 | 284.9 | 0.491 | SC5 Very High | 0.0% |
| 15 | Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | USA | Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology | 88.0 | 172.7 | 0.196 | SC4 High | 0.0% |
| 17 | Roche | ROG.SW | Switzerland | Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology | 66.0 | 137.1 | 0.208 | SC4 High | 0.0% |
| 22 | AstraZeneca | AZN | United Kingdom | Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology | 54.0 | 118.9 | 0.220 | SC5 Very High | 0.0% |
| 23 | Merck & Co. | MRK | USA | Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology | 64.0 | 118.6 | 0.185 | SC4 High | 0.0% |
| 25 | Eli Lilly | LLY | USA | Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology | 45.0 | 116.3 | 0.259 | SC5 Very High | 0.0% |
See this for your own supply chain
You are looking at Pfizer's supply-chain risk capital: $284.9m against $58.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by Lonza Group and Switzerland. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta
- Simulation
- 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
- Seed
- 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
- Input basis
- Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
- Input fingerprint
- b34bc3f2a75b
- Financials
- Production calculator preset focal-firm figures.
- Network
- Production calculator preset network (Pfizer) — supplier names, tiers, geographies, products and purchase volumes as shipped.
- Parameters
- lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.
Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.