SciRisk 100 · Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology · Rank 23 of 100

Merck & Co.

MRK · USA · Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology SC4 High

Economic Supply Chain Risk Capital

$118.6m

95% one-year Value-at-Risk · interval $117.6m to $119.7m (1.8% wide)

Risk Capital Intensity

0.185%

of $64.0bn revenue · rank #15 of 100

Global rank

#23

of 100 by ESCRC

Sector rank

#5

of 10 in Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology

Expected Shortfall

$163.5m

Mean loss beyond ESCRC

Expected annual loss

$34.3m

Ordinary year

Revenue / COGS

64.0 / 17.0

USD bn · gross margin 73%

Suppliers modelled

10

3 correlated geographies

What does this ESCRC number mean?

An ESCRC of $118.6m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for Merck & Co. under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $163.5m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $34.3m.

Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.

Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile

Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.

By tier

Tier 1

87%

Tier 2

12%

Tier 3

1%

Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.

By supplier geography

Switzerland

52%

USA

25%

Germany

12%

South Korea

9%

United States

2%

Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.

By supplier industry

pharma bio

100%

Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.

Largest supplier share

30%

Lonza Group

Top-3 concentration

64%

of summed standalone VaR

Tier-1 share of risk

87%

Direct suppliers

Diversification benefit

47.6%

vs. sum of standalone VaR

Supplier	Tier	Country	ExposureUSD m	Standalone VaRUSD m	Expected lossUSD m	Tail intensityrevenue-days	RoESCRCx
Lonza GroupAPI & biologics CMO	T1	Switzerland	1530	68.2	10.7	4.3	61.5
SiegfriedFill/finish CMO (Siegfried)	T1	Switzerland	1105	49.2	7.6	4.3	61.5
Thermo Fisher ScientificBioprocess raw materials	T1	USA	850	28.1	3.9	3.2	82.9
Samsung BiologicsBiologics CMO	T1	South Korea	595	21.4	3.0	3.5	76.4
West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc.Stoppers/closures	T1	USA	510	15.7	2.3	3.0	89.1
Corning Life SciencesGlass vials	T1	USA	425	13.7	2.0	3.1	85.1
Merck KGaACell culture media	T2	Germany	510	13.6	2.2	4.3	61.5
SartoriusSingle-use bioprocess bags	T2	Germany	374	10.0	1.6	4.3	61.5
CatalentContract fill/finish and drug product manufacturing services	T2	United States	204	3.9	0.6	3.1	85.7
Evonik Industries AGExcipients	T3	Germany	204	2.7	0.4	4.3	61.5

Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2

Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for Merck & Co. are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.

Sector peers

Nearest-ranked companies in Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology. Merck & Co. is highlighted.

Open in Compare

Rank	Company	Ticker	Country	Sector	RevenueUSD bn	ESCRCUSD m	ESCRC / Revenue%	Risk Grade	Change
15	Johnson & Johnson	JNJ	USA	Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology	88.0	172.7	0.196	SC4 High	0.0%
17	Roche	ROG.SW	Switzerland	Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology	66.0	137.1	0.208	SC4 High	0.0%
22	AstraZeneca	AZN	United Kingdom	Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology	54.0	118.9	0.220	SC5 Very High	0.0%
23	Merck & Co.	MRK	USA	Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology	64.0	118.6	0.185	SC4 High	0.0%
25	Eli Lilly	LLY	USA	Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology	45.0	116.3	0.259	SC5 Very High	0.0%
26	Novartis	NVS	Switzerland	Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology	45.0	116.3	0.258	SC5 Very High	0.0%

See this for your own supply chain

You are looking at Merck & Co.'s supply-chain risk capital: $118.6m against $64.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by Lonza Group and Switzerland. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.

Calculate your ESCRC Load Merck & Co.'s network Compare with peers

ESCRC calculated using SciRisk ESCRC Model v5.4.2 · calibrated priors 2026.09-5
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta

Simulation: 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
Seed: 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
Input basis: Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
Input fingerprint: 6aafaee09f98

Input provenance for Merck & Co.

Financials: Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
Network: Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
Parameters: lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.

SciRisk ESCRC is an analytical estimate generated using the SciRisk Economic Supply Chain Risk Capital methodology. It is not a credit rating, investment recommendation or statement of financial condition. Figures are model-implied and intended for screening and comparison, not as calibrated capital requirements.

Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.