SciRisk 100 · Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology · Rank 17 of 100
Roche
ROG.SW · Switzerland · Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology SC4 High
What does this ESCRC number mean?
An ESCRC of $137.1m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for Roche under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $195.1m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $39.9m.
Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.
Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile
Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.
By tier
Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.
By supplier geography
Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.
By supplier industry
Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.
| Supplier | Tier | Country | ExposureUSD m | Standalone VaRUSD m | Expected lossUSD m | Tail intensityrevenue-days | RoESCRCx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lonza GroupAPI & biologics CMO | T1 | Switzerland | 1800 | 78.1 | 12.2 | 4.3 | 61.5 |
| SiegfriedFill/finish CMO (Siegfried) | T1 | Switzerland | 1080 | 46.9 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 61.5 |
| SartoriusSingle-use bioprocess bags | T1 | Germany | 810 | 35.2 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 61.5 |
| Thermo Fisher ScientificBioprocess raw materials | T1 | USA | 900 | 30.4 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 79.2 |
| SchottGlass vials | T1 | Germany | 450 | 19.5 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 61.5 |
| West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc.Stoppers/closures | T1 | USA | 540 | 18.2 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 79.2 |
| Merck KGaACell culture media | T2 | Germany | 630 | 16.4 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 61.5 |
| RepligenChromatography resins | T2 | USA | 360 | 6.8 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 84.7 |
| WuXi BiologicsBiologics manufacturing / technology transfer (monoclonal antibodies) | T2 | China | 180 | 3.8 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 76.4 |
| Samsung BiologicsBiologics contract manufacturing (Actemra/tocilizumab) | T2 | South Korea | 180 | 3.8 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 76.4 |
| Evonik Industries AGExcipients | T3 | Germany | 216 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 4.3 | 61.5 |
Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2
Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for Roche are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.
Sector peers
Nearest-ranked companies in Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology. Roche is highlighted.
| Rank | Company | Ticker | Country | Sector | RevenueUSD bn | ESCRCUSD m | ESCRC / Revenue% | Risk Grade | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | USA | Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology | 88.0 | 172.7 | 0.196 | SC4 High | 0.0% |
| 17 | Roche | ROG.SW | Switzerland | Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology | 66.0 | 137.1 | 0.208 | SC4 High | 0.0% |
| 22 | AstraZeneca | AZN | United Kingdom | Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology | 54.0 | 118.9 | 0.220 | SC5 Very High | 0.0% |
| 23 | Merck & Co. | MRK | USA | Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology | 64.0 | 118.6 | 0.185 | SC4 High | 0.0% |
| 25 | Eli Lilly | LLY | USA | Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology | 45.0 | 116.3 | 0.259 | SC5 Very High | 0.0% |
| 26 | Novartis | NVS | Switzerland | Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology | 45.0 | 116.3 | 0.258 | SC5 Very High | 0.0% |
See this for your own supply chain
You are looking at Roche's supply-chain risk capital: $137.1m against $66.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by Lonza Group and Switzerland. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta
- Simulation
- 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
- Seed
- 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
- Input basis
- Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
- Input fingerprint
- 00757ec33cd3
- Financials
- Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
- Network
- Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
- Parameters
- lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.
Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.