SciRisk 100 · Healthcare Equipment · Rank 58 of 100
Thermo Fisher Scientific
TMO · USA · Healthcare Equipment SC4 High
What does this ESCRC number mean?
An ESCRC of $43.7m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for Thermo Fisher Scientific under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $60.1m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $11.3m.
Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.
Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile
Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.
By tier
Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.
By supplier geography
Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.
By supplier industry
Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.
| Supplier | Tier | Country | ExposureUSD m | Standalone VaRUSD m | Expected lossUSD m | Tail intensityrevenue-days | RoESCRCx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merck KGaACell culture media/chemicals | T1 | Germany | 1250 | 25.4 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 34.5 |
| SartoriusSingle-use bioprocess bags | T1 | Germany | 1000 | 20.4 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 34.5 |
| RepligenChromatography resins | T1 | USA | 750 | 11.9 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 44.4 |
| JabilInstrument EMS | T1 | USA | 1125 | 8.5 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 93.0 |
| Corning Life SciencesLabware glass | T1 | USA | 1000 | 6.2 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 113.0 |
| AmcorMedical plastics | T1 | Switzerland | 750 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 178.0 |
| Evonik Industries AGChemical intermediates | T2 | Germany | 625 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 113.0 |
| SHL MedicalMolly modular autoinjector platform for drug-device combination product assembly | T2 | Switzerland | 150 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 4.3 | 34.5 |
| GlencorePrecious metal inputs | T3 | Switzerland | 250 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 2.6 | 56.6 |
| EntegrisFiltration components | T2 | USA | 750 | 0.0 | 0.2 | — | — |
Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2
Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for Thermo Fisher Scientific are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.
Sector peers
Nearest-ranked companies in Healthcare Equipment. Thermo Fisher Scientific is highlighted.
| Rank | Company | Ticker | Country | Sector | RevenueUSD bn | ESCRCUSD m | ESCRC / Revenue% | Risk Grade | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | Thermo Fisher Scientific | TMO | USA | Healthcare Equipment | 43.0 | 43.7 | 0.102 | SC4 High | 0.0% |
| 73 | Danaher | DHR | USA | Healthcare Equipment | 24.0 | 24.3 | 0.101 | SC4 High | 0.0% |
| 80 | Abbott Laboratories | ABT | USA | Healthcare Equipment | 42.0 | 18.6 | 0.044 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +0.5% |
| 89 | Medtronic | MDT | Ireland | Healthcare Equipment | 32.0 | 14.1 | 0.044 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +0.3% |
| 91 | Becton Dickinson | BDX | USA | Healthcare Equipment | 20.0 | 11.4 | 0.057 | SC2 Low | ▼ -1.5% |
| 94 | Koninklijke Philips | PHG | Netherlands | Healthcare Equipment | 20.0 | 8.9 | 0.045 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +0.5% |
See this for your own supply chain
You are looking at Thermo Fisher Scientific's supply-chain risk capital: $43.7m against $43.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by Merck KGaA and Germany. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta
- Simulation
- 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
- Seed
- 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
- Input basis
- Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
- Input fingerprint
- 3a5745d4a43a
- Financials
- Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
- Network
- Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
- Parameters
- lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.
- Fallback
- Some suppliers resolve to an industry bucket with no coverage in the shipped preset networks (metals materials inputs). Their recovery times use the median across all preset suppliers rather than a bucket-specific or externally-cited one.
- Fallback
- Some suppliers resolve to an industry bucket with no preset coverage for revenue-at-risk fraction (packaging, metals materials inputs). This parameter has no external benchmark for any industry in this dataset, so it uses the median across all preset suppliers.
Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.