SciRisk 100 · Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology · Rank 40 of 100

GSK

GSK · United Kingdom · Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology SC4 High

Economic Supply Chain Risk Capital

$71.2m

95% one-year Value-at-Risk · interval $70.5m to $71.9m (1.9% wide)

Risk Capital Intensity

0.183%

of $39.0bn revenue · rank #17 of 100

Global rank

#40

of 100 by ESCRC

Sector rank

#9

of 10 in Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology

Expected Shortfall

$99.3m

Mean loss beyond ESCRC

Expected annual loss

$20.7m

Ordinary year

Revenue / COGS

39.0 / 11.0

USD bn · gross margin 71%

Suppliers modelled

13

4 correlated geographies

What does this ESCRC number mean?

An ESCRC of $71.2m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for GSK under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $99.3m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $20.7m.

Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.

Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile

Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.

By tier

Tier 1

86%

Tier 2

13%

Tier 3

1%

Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.

By supplier geography

Switzerland

49%

Germany

21%

USA

18%

South Korea

8%

Taiwan

2%

United States

1%

Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.

By supplier industry

pharma bio

96%

general mfg

4%

Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.

Largest supplier share

29%

Lonza Group

Top-3 concentration

61%

of summed standalone VaR

Tier-1 share of risk

86%

Direct suppliers

Diversification benefit

47.6%

vs. sum of standalone VaR

Supplier	Tier	Country	ExposureUSD m	Standalone VaRUSD m	Expected lossUSD m	Tail intensityrevenue-days	RoESCRCx
Lonza GroupAPI & biologics CMO	T1	Switzerland	935	39.2	6.3	4.3	59.8
SiegfriedFill/finish CMO (Siegfried)	T1	Switzerland	660	27.7	4.5	4.3	59.8
Thermo Fisher ScientificBioprocess raw materials	T1	USA	495	15.9	2.2	3.3	78.0
SchottGlass vials	T1	Germany	330	13.8	2.2	4.3	59.8
Samsung BiologicsBiologics CMO	T1	South Korea	330	11.2	1.6	3.5	74.3
West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc.Stoppers/closures	T1	USA	275	8.1	1.2	3.0	85.0
Merck KGaACell culture media	T2	Germany	308	7.8	1.2	4.3	59.8
SartoriusSingle-use bioprocess bags	T2	Germany	220	5.5	0.9	4.3	59.8
Bora PharmaceuticalsContract manufacturing (oral solid dose) for >20 commercial product lines/335+ products	T2	Taiwan	220	2.5	0.3	2.0	132.0
Evonik Industries AGExcipients	T3	Germany	110	1.4	0.2	4.3	59.8
CatalentContract manufacturing of Lovaza (omega-3) softgel capsules and biosimilar cell-line/manufacturing support	T2	United States	165	1.2	0.1	1.3	203.6
DelpharmContract manufacturing of GSK's divested Poznań, Poland product line	T2	France	110	0.8	0.1	1.3	203.6
Orbia Fluor & Energy Materials (Koura)Zephex 152a low-GWP medical propellant for next-gen Ventolin MDI inhaler	T1	United Kingdom	55	0.7	0.1	1.3	203.6

Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2

Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for GSK are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.

Sector peers

Nearest-ranked companies in Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology. GSK is highlighted.

Open in Compare

Rank	Company	Ticker	Country	Sector	RevenueUSD bn	ESCRCUSD m	ESCRC / Revenue%	Risk Grade	Change
23	Merck & Co.	MRK	USA	Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology	64.0	118.6	0.185	SC4 High	0.0%
25	Eli Lilly	LLY	USA	Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology	45.0	116.3	0.259	SC5 Very High	0.0%
26	Novartis	NVS	Switzerland	Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology	45.0	116.3	0.258	SC5 Very High	0.0%
35	Sanofi	SNY	France	Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology	47.0	85.9	0.183	SC4 High	0.0%
40	GSK	GSK	United Kingdom	Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology	39.0	71.2	0.183	SC4 High	0.0%
42	Bayer	BAYN.DE	Germany	Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology	50.0	66.9	0.134	SC4 High	0.0%

See this for your own supply chain

You are looking at GSK's supply-chain risk capital: $71.2m against $39.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by Lonza Group and Switzerland. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.

Calculate your ESCRC Load GSK's network Compare with peers

ESCRC calculated using SciRisk ESCRC Model v5.4.2 · calibrated priors 2026.09-5
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta

Simulation: 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
Seed: 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
Input basis: Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
Input fingerprint: 0bfe6c7f7a99

Input provenance for GSK

Financials: Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
Network: Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
Parameters: lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.

SciRisk ESCRC is an analytical estimate generated using the SciRisk Economic Supply Chain Risk Capital methodology. It is not a credit rating, investment recommendation or statement of financial condition. Figures are model-implied and intended for screening and comparison, not as calibrated capital requirements.

Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.