SciRisk 100 · Chemicals · Rank 69 of 100

BASF

BAS.DE · Germany · Chemicals SC1 Very Low

Economic Supply Chain Risk Capital

$27.8m

95% one-year Value-at-Risk · interval $27.2m to $28.3m (3.9% wide)

Risk Capital Intensity

0.040%

of $70.0bn revenue · rank #76 of 100

Global rank

#69

of 100 by ESCRC

Sector rank

#1

of 7 in Chemicals

Expected Shortfall

$40.0m

Mean loss beyond ESCRC

Expected annual loss

$6.8m

Ordinary year

Revenue / COGS

70.0 / 55.0

USD bn · gross margin 21%

Suppliers modelled

12

3 correlated geographies

What does this ESCRC number mean?

An ESCRC of $27.8m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for BASF under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $40.0m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $6.8m.

Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.

Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile

Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.

By tier

Tier 1

82%

Tier 2

15%

Tier 3

2%

Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.

By supplier geography

United Kingdom

43%

France

23%

Norway

10%

Germany

8%

China

8%

Switzerland

6%

Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.

By supplier industry

chemicals materials

90%

raw materials mining

8%

general mfg

2%

Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.

Largest supplier share

27%

Shell

Top-3 concentration

60%

of summed standalone VaR

Tier-1 share of risk

82%

Direct suppliers

Diversification benefit

70.0%

vs. sum of standalone VaR

Supplier	Tier	Country	ExposureUSD m	Standalone VaRUSD m	Expected lossUSD m	Tail intensityrevenue-days	RoESCRCx
ShellNaphtha/petrochemical feedstock	T1	United Kingdom	5500	25.4	1.8	1.3	57.9
TotalEnergiesPetrochemical feedstock	T1	France	3850	17.8	1.3	1.3	57.9
LindeIndustrial gases	T1	United Kingdom	2750	12.7	0.9	1.3	57.9
YaraAmmonia/intermediates	T1	Norway	1925	8.9	0.6	1.3	57.9
Evonik Industries AGChemical intermediates	T1	Germany	1650	7.6	0.5	1.3	57.9
SinopecPetrochemical intermediates	T2	China	2750	7.6	0.8	1.3	57.8
GlencoreMetal catalysts/minerals	T2	Switzerland	1650	5.3	0.4	1.5	50.0
Air LiquideIndustrial gases (oxygen/nitrogen) for BASF's Verbund sites	T1	France	825	3.8	0.3	1.3	57.9
Rio TintoMineral feedstock	T3	United Kingdom	1100	1.8	0.1	1.5	50.0
AltaGas Ltd.Butane feedstock for BASF's Asia cracker operations (via Ridley Island Energy Export Facility)	T2	Canada	550	1.5	0.1	1.3	60.2
Encina Development GroupChemically recycled benzene from post-consumer plastic waste	T3	United States	165	0.2	0.0	1.3	60.2
Braven EnvironmentalAdvanced recycled (pyrolysis) feedstock	T3	United States	165	0.2	0.0	1.3	60.2

Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2

Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for BASF are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.

Sector peers

Nearest-ranked companies in Chemicals. BASF is highlighted.

Open in Compare

Rank	Company	Ticker	Country	Sector	RevenueUSD bn	ESCRCUSD m	ESCRC / Revenue%	Risk Grade	Change
69	BASF	BAS.DE	Germany	Chemicals	70.0	27.8	0.040	SC1 Very Low	0.0%
77	LyondellBasell	LYB	Netherlands	Chemicals	41.0	19.9	0.049	SC2 Low	0.0%
79	Dow	DOW	USA	Chemicals	43.0	18.7	0.043	SC1 Very Low	0.0%
93	Linde	LIN	United Kingdom	Chemicals	33.0	9.3	0.028	SC1 Very Low	▼ -2.3%
97	Air Liquide	AI.PA	France	Chemicals	29.0	8.3	0.029	SC1 Very Low	▼ -5.2%
99	Covestro	1COV.DE	Germany	Chemicals	15.0	6.4	0.043	SC1 Very Low	0.0%

See this for your own supply chain

You are looking at BASF's supply-chain risk capital: $27.8m against $70.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by Shell and United Kingdom. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.

Calculate your ESCRC Load BASF's network Compare with peers

ESCRC calculated using SciRisk ESCRC Model v5.4.2 · calibrated priors 2026.09-5
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta

Simulation: 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
Seed: 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
Input basis: Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
Input fingerprint: 4f3905e7fd15

Input provenance for BASF

Financials: Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
Network: Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
Parameters: lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.

SciRisk ESCRC is an analytical estimate generated using the SciRisk Economic Supply Chain Risk Capital methodology. It is not a credit rating, investment recommendation or statement of financial condition. Figures are model-implied and intended for screening and comparison, not as calibrated capital requirements.

Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.