SciRisk 100 · Chemicals · Rank 99 of 100
Covestro
1COV.DE · Germany · Chemicals SC1 Very Low
What does this ESCRC number mean?
An ESCRC of $6.4m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for Covestro under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $9.0m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $1.5m.
Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.
Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile
Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.
By tier
Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.
By supplier geography
Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.
By supplier industry
Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.
| Supplier | Tier | Country | ExposureUSD m | Standalone VaRUSD m | Expected lossUSD m | Tail intensityrevenue-days | RoESCRCx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BASFChemical intermediates | T1 | Germany | 1300 | 5.4 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 35.8 |
| ShellBenzene/petrochemical feedstock | T1 | United Kingdom | 1040 | 4.3 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 35.8 |
| LindeIndustrial gases | T1 | United Kingdom | 650 | 2.7 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 35.8 |
| TotalEnergiesPetrochemical feedstock | T1 | France | 650 | 2.7 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 35.8 |
| INEOSPhenol/acetone feedstock | T1 | United Kingdom | 390 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 35.8 |
| Evonik Industries AGSpecialty intermediates | T2 | Germany | 520 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 35.8 |
| SinopecPetrochemical intermediates | T2 | China | 455 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 35.8 |
| GlencoreMetal catalysts | T3 | Switzerland | 195 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 17.9 |
| NesteRenewable hydrocarbon feedstock | T2 | Finland | 156 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 35.8 |
| DB Cargo BTTRail/intermodal logistics for bulk MDI/TDI/polyol chemical transport | T3 | Germany | 78 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 35.8 |
Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2
Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for Covestro are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.
Sector peers
Nearest-ranked companies in Chemicals. Covestro is highlighted.
| Rank | Company | Ticker | Country | Sector | RevenueUSD bn | ESCRCUSD m | ESCRC / Revenue% | Risk Grade | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | LyondellBasell | LYB | Netherlands | Chemicals | 41.0 | 19.9 | 0.049 | SC2 Low | 0.0% |
| 79 | Dow | DOW | USA | Chemicals | 43.0 | 18.7 | 0.043 | SC1 Very Low | 0.0% |
| 93 | Linde | LIN | United Kingdom | Chemicals | 33.0 | 9.3 | 0.028 | SC1 Very Low | ▼ -2.3% |
| 97 | Air Liquide | AI.PA | France | Chemicals | 29.0 | 8.3 | 0.029 | SC1 Very Low | ▼ -5.2% |
| 99 | Covestro | 1COV.DE | Germany | Chemicals | 15.0 | 6.4 | 0.043 | SC1 Very Low | 0.0% |
| 100 | Shin-Etsu Chemical | 4063.T | Japan | Chemicals | 16.0 | 6.1 | 0.038 | SC1 Very Low | 0.0% |
See this for your own supply chain
You are looking at Covestro's supply-chain risk capital: $6.4m against $15.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by BASF and United Kingdom. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta
- Simulation
- 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
- Seed
- 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
- Input basis
- Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
- Input fingerprint
- 45cebaa92b6b
- Financials
- Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
- Network
- Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
- Parameters
- lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.
- Fallback
- Some suppliers resolve to an industry bucket with no coverage in the shipped preset networks (metals materials inputs). Their recovery times use the median across all preset suppliers rather than a bucket-specific or externally-cited one.
- Fallback
- Some suppliers resolve to an industry bucket with no preset coverage for revenue-at-risk fraction (metals materials inputs). This parameter has no external benchmark for any industry in this dataset, so it uses the median across all preset suppliers.
Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.