SciRisk 100 · Energy & Utilities · Rank 45 of 100
BP
BP · United Kingdom · Energy & Utilities SC1 Very Low
What does this ESCRC number mean?
An ESCRC of $61.8m is the estimated economic supply-chain risk capital requirement generated by the SciRisk ESCRC model for BP under the stated assumptions: a 365-day horizon, 100,000 simulated years, and the 95% tail of the resulting loss distribution. Beyond that threshold the average loss — the Expected Shortfall — is $89.8m; in an ordinary year the expected loss is $9.0m.
Value-at-Risk: the portfolio loss not exceeded with the chosen confidence level. Read as the ESCRC risk capital — the loss the firm should be prepared to absorb in a bad year. Model-implied and intended for screening and ranking, not a calibrated capital figure.
Supply Chain Risk Capital Profile
Where the risk capital comes from. Every column is a production-engine output for this network — nothing is inferred.
By tier
Share of summed standalone VaR. Deeper tiers are attenuated by the engine's echelon buffer factors and capped by flow conservation.
By supplier geography
Major-event risk is correlated within a geography group (rho = 0.35), so concentration here compounds.
By supplier industry
Buckets are the calibrated-priors industry classes that set each supplier's minor-event rate.
| Supplier | Tier | Country | ExposureUSD m | Standalone VaRUSD m | Expected lossUSD m | Tail intensityrevenue-days | RoESCRCx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LindeIndustrial gases | T1 | United Kingdom | 2170 | 9.6 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 49.6 |
| VallourecOCTG tubular steel | T2 | France | 2790 | 7.4 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 49.6 |
| ThyssenKruppPressure-vessel steel | T2 | Germany | 2480 | 6.6 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 49.6 |
| Rio TintoMineral inputs | T3 | United Kingdom | 1240 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 42.9 |
| SLBOilfield services | T1 | USA | 5425 | 0.0 | 2.0 | — | — |
| HalliburtonDrilling services | T1 | USA | 3875 | 0.0 | 1.4 | — | — |
| TechnipFMCSubsea systems | T1 | United Kingdom | 3875 | 0.0 | 1.1 | — | — |
| SaipemOffshore EPC services | T1 | Italy | 3875 | 0.0 | 1.2 | — | — |
| Baker HughesTurbomachinery equipment | T1 | USA | 3410 | 0.0 | 1.2 | — | — |
| DOF GroupSubsea construction/installation/repair/maintenance vessel services (Atlantic region) | T2 | Norway | 1860 | 0.0 | 0.3 | — | — |
Scenario Analysis — coming in Phase 2
Recovery-time, supplier-diversification, inventory and geographic-diversification scenarios for BP are not part of this release. The ESCRC Calculator already supports what-if analysis on a network you build yourself.
Sector peers
Nearest-ranked companies in Energy & Utilities. BP is highlighted.
| Rank | Company | Ticker | Country | Sector | RevenueUSD bn | ESCRCUSD m | ESCRC / Revenue% | Risk Grade | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | ExxonMobil | XOM | USA | Energy & Utilities | 340.0 | 93.7 | 0.028 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +25.7% |
| 33 | Shell | SHEL | United Kingdom | Energy & Utilities | 284.0 | 92.4 | 0.033 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +61.5% |
| 45 | BP | BP | United Kingdom | Energy & Utilities | 190.0 | 61.8 | 0.033 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +66.6% |
| 46 | TotalEnergies | TTE | France | Energy & Utilities | 195.0 | 58.5 | 0.030 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +52.0% |
| 49 | Chevron | CVX | USA | Energy & Utilities | 193.0 | 55.1 | 0.029 | SC1 Very Low | ▲ +27.7% |
| 68 | Enel | ENEL.MI | Italy | Energy & Utilities | 85.0 | 27.9 | 0.033 | SC1 Very Low | 0.0% |
See this for your own supply chain
You are looking at BP's supply-chain risk capital: $61.8m against $190.0bn of revenue, driven mostly by Linde and United Kingdom. The calculator runs the same engine on a network you build yourself.
Company data as of 2026-06-30 · ESCRC calculated 2026-09-21 · dataset 2026.09-23 Beta
- Simulation
- 100,000 Monte Carlo paths · 95% confidence · 365-day horizon
- Seed
- 20260821 · regional correlation ρ = 0.35
- Input basis
- Curated network, calibrated-prior parameters
- Input fingerprint
- 287673fd28a0
- Financials
- Curated from the company's most recent reported full financial year, as filed.
- Network
- Curated from company supplier disclosure; purchase volumes declared as a share of reported COGS.
- Parameters
- lambda1/lambda2 = calibrated ESCRC priors 2026.09-5 bucket defaults; r1/r2 = median of the shipped production preset networks within the same industry x geography cell when that cell has enough independent data, else the same industry-only bucket median, or (for industries with no preset supplier coverage) a directly-cited external recovery-event duration where one was found; ic = the same preset-network median (no external benchmark exists for this parameter for any industry). All three clamped into externally-cited recovery-time/BI-loss bounds per field.
- Fallback
- Some suppliers resolve to an industry bucket with no preset coverage for revenue-at-risk fraction (energy equipment). This parameter has no external benchmark for any industry in this dataset, so it uses the median across all preset suppliers.
Beta / preliminary dataset. Company inputs are analyst-curated from public annual reports and public supply-chain disclosure. ESCRC itself is computed by the production ESCRC engine — only the INPUTS on this page are preliminary.